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  1. Home
  2. Liga 1
  3. Cienciano vs FBC Melgar

Cienciano vs FBC Melgar

Result • Liga 1·Cienciano·FBC Melgar

Liga 1
Liga 1
Jul 18, 2026
01:00
low Confidence
Cienciano

Cienciano

Home
Final Score
1-3
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
1-3
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.90
X3.60
23.75
Stadium
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
low Confidence
WINNER
FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar

Away
Odds
11.90
X3.60
23.75
Stadium
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Win Probabilities
39%
Cienciano
31%
Draw
30%
FBC Melgar
Home1.9039%
Draw3.6031%
Away3.7530%

Oracle's Vision

low Confidence
“

Cienciano are slight favourites at home with a 46% win probability, backed by their strong home record (7-1-1) and higher league position. However, Melgar's dominant head-to-head history (7 wins in last 10) and solid recent form make them a dangerous opponent.

Our AI model analyzes this Liga 1 fixture between Cienciano and FBC Melgar using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Cienciano a 39% win probability, a 31% chance of a draw, and FBC Melgar a 30% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 52%. This prediction is rated as low confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 52%
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1C. Garcés vs Melgar defense: Garcés is Cienciano's top scorer with 9 goals; Melgar's defense must contain his movement in the box.
2A. Hohberg vs N. Quagliata: Hohberg's creativity and goal threat from midfield vs Quagliata's defensive work rate and ability to launch counters.
3J. Vidales vs Cienciano backline: Vidales is Melgar's main attacking threat; Cienciano's defenders need to stay compact to deny him space.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Cienciano

  • Strong home record (7-1-1)
  • High scoring attack (2.2 goals per game)
  • Defensive vulnerability (1 clean sheet in last 5)
  • Recent loss in last match

FBC Melgar

  • Excellent H2H record (7 wins in last 10)
  • Solid defense (2 clean sheets in last 5)
  • Low scoring rate (1.2 goals per game)
  • Failed to score in 2 of last 5

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
39%
API-Football
45%
38%
FBC Melgar253838

Models disagree significantly. Suggests draw (38%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisLow Confidence

The match between Cienciano and FBC Melgar is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the home side holding a slight edge according to the market. Cienciano's strong home record (7-1-1) and higher league position (3rd) are key factors, but Melgar's superior head-to-head record and solid defensive form cannot be ignored.

Form Analysis: Cienciano have won 3 of their last 5, averaging 2.2 goals scored per game, but have kept only 1 clean sheet. Melgar are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws) with 2 clean sheets, though they have failed to score in 2 of those matches. The API comparison gives Melgar a slight edge in attack (58%) and defense (60%), but Cienciano's home advantage is significant.

Key Factors: Cienciano's home fortress (7 wins in 9) vs Melgar's historical dominance (7 wins in last 10 H2H). Melgar's recent draws suggest resilience, while Cienciano's high scoring rate (2.2 per game) could be decisive. No major injuries reported for either side.

Conclusion: The data points to a tight match where Cienciano's home strength slightly outweighs Melgar's H2H superiority. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, but a draw is a strong possibility given Melgar's form.

Statistical ContextFBC Melgar

Double chance : draw or FBC Melgar

Team Comparison

AI Powered
CiencianoFBC Melgar
46%Strength54%
42%Attacking Potential58%
40%Defensive Potential60%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
40%H2H Strength60%
43%Goals H2H57%
46%Wins the Game54%

Statistical Context

Cienciano

LLDWL
  • LAug 23, 26A · Sport Boys5-1
  • LAug 21, 26A · Botafogo1-0
  • DAug 16, 26H · Deportivo Garcilaso0-0
  • WAug 14, 26H · Botafogo6-1
  • LAug 6, 26A · Alianza Atletico1-0

FBC Melgar

DWLDW
  • DAug 23, 26H · Alianza Lima1-1
  • WAug 15, 26A · Club Deportivo Los Chankas0-3
  • LAug 9, 26H · FC Cajamarca2-4
  • DAug 2, 26A · UCV Moquegua0-0
  • WJul 26, 26H · Sporting Cristal2-1

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
4Sport Boys6+611WDDWW
5FBC Melgar6+411DWLDW
6Sporting Cristal6+310LWDWL
15FC Cajamarca6-44LLWLL
16Cienciano6-74LDLWL
17UTC Cajamarca6-82LLDLD

Head to Head

1
Cienciano
2
Draws
7
FBC Melgar
  • Mar 6, 26Cienciano – FBC Melgar1-1
  • Jan 31, 26FBC Melgar – Cienciano2-0
  • Oct 3, 25FBC Melgar – Cienciano2-0
  • May 11, 25Cienciano – FBC Melgar1-2
  • Aug 26, 24Cienciano – FBC Melgar3-1

Season Statistics — 2026

CiencianoFBC Melgar
Played2322
Goals Scored3839
Goals Conceded3326
Avg Scored1.61.8
Avg Conceded1.41.2
Clean Sheets46

Cienciano vs FBC Melgar — Match Analysis

Cienciano are slight favourites at home with a 46% win probability, backed by their strong home record (7-1-1) and higher league position. However, Melgar's dominant head-to-head history (7 wins in last 10) and solid recent form make them a dangerous opponent.

The match between Cienciano and FBC Melgar is expected to be a closely contested affair, with the home side holding a slight edge according to the market. Cienciano's strong home record (7-1-1) and higher league position (3rd) are key factors, but Melgar's superior head-to-head record and solid defensive form cannot be ignored.

Form Analysis: Cienciano have won 3 of their last 5, averaging 2.2 goals scored per game, but have kept only 1 clean sheet. Melgar are unbeaten in 5 (2 wins, 3 draws) with 2 clean sheets, though they have failed to score in 2 of those matches. The API comparison gives Melgar a slight edge in attack (58%) and defense (60%), but Cienciano's home advantage is significant.

Key Factors: Cienciano's home fortress (7 wins in 9) vs Melgar's historical dominance (7 wins in last 10 H2H). Melgar's recent draws suggest resilience, while Cienciano's high scoring rate (2.2 per game) could be decisive. No major injuries reported for either side.

Conclusion: The data points to a tight match where Cienciano's home strength slightly outweighs Melgar's H2H superiority. A narrow home win is the most likely outcome, but a draw is a strong possibility given Melgar's form.

Win Probabilities: Cienciano: 39% · Draw: 31% · FBC Melgar: 30%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 52%

H2H: Cienciano wins: 1 · Draws: 2 · FBC Melgar wins: 7

Form (latest first): Cienciano: LLDWL · FBC Melgar: DWLDW

  • C. Garcés vs Melgar defense: Garcés is Cienciano's top scorer with 9 goals; Melgar's defense must contain his movement in the box.
  • A. Hohberg vs N. Quagliata: Hohberg's creativity and goal threat from midfield vs Quagliata's defensive work rate and ability to launch counters.
  • J. Vidales vs Cienciano backline: Vidales is Melgar's main attacking threat; Cienciano's defenders need to stay compact to deny him space.

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Liga 1

Liga 1

Peru15 · Upcoming Fixtures
Liga 1Peru
Comerciantes Unidos
Aug 2820:00
FC Cajamarca
11.9252%
X3.3330%
25.5618%
Liga 1Peru
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Aug 2918:00
Juan Pablo II College
11.9252%
X4.0025%
24.3523%
Liga 1Peru
UTC Cajamarca
Aug 2920:30
Universitario
13.5728%
X3.1332%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
Alianza Lima
Aug 3000:30
Deportivo Garcilaso
11.4768%
X4.3523%
211.119%
Liga 1Peru
UCV Moquegua
Aug 3016:00
Alianza Atletico
13.5728%
X3.1332%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
ADT
Aug 3018:15
Sport Huancayo
12.5040%
X3.5728%
23.1332%
Liga 1Peru
Sport Boys
Aug 3020:30
Sporting Cristal
12.5040%
X3.1332%
23.5728%
Liga 1Peru
Cienciano
Aug 3100:00
Cusco
12.4441%
X3.2331%
23.5728%
Liga 1Peru
Atletico Grau
Aug 3120:00
FBC Melgar
13.5728%
X3.1332%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
FC Cajamarca
Sep 418:00
Cienciano
Early projection
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
Liga 1Peru
Alianza Atletico
Sep 420:15
UTC Cajamarca
Early projection
11.3077%
X7.1414%
211.119%
Liga 1Peru
Sport Huancayo
Sep 520:00
Sport Boys
Early projection
13.0333%
X3.7027%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
Cusco
Sep 523:00
UCV Moquegua
Early projection
11.8953%
X4.7621%
23.8526%
Liga 1Peru
Universitario
Sep 601:30
Comerciantes Unidos
Early projection
11.6959%
X5.0020%
24.7621%
Liga 1Peru
Sporting Cristal
Sep 616:00
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Early projection
11.7956%
X4.7621%
24.3523%