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  1. Home
  2. Liga 1
  3. FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal

FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal

Result • Liga 1·FBC Melgar·Sporting Cristal

Liga 1
Liga 1
Jul 26, 2026
01:00
medium Confidence
WINNER
FBC Melgar

FBC Melgar

Home
Final Score
2-1
Predicted: 2-1
Final Score
2-1
Predicted: 2-1
Odds
11.70
X3.60
24.50
Stadium
Estadio de la UNSA
medium Confidence
Sporting Cristal

Sporting Cristal

Away
Odds
11.70
X3.60
24.50
Stadium
Estadio de la UNSA
Win Probabilities
50%
FBC Melgar
30%
Draw
20%
Sporting Cristal
Home1.7050%
Draw3.6030%
Away4.5020%

Oracle's Vision

medium Confidence
“

FBC Melgar are predicted to win with a 51% probability, backed by a dominant head-to-head record (6 wins in last 10) and strong home form. The main risk is Sporting Cristal's recent unbeaten run and their ability to score consistently.

Our AI model analyzes this Liga 1 fixture between FBC Melgar and Sporting Cristal using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns FBC Melgar a 50% win probability, a 30% chance of a draw, and Sporting Cristal a 20% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1. Both teams to score probability: 52%. This prediction is rated as medium confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 52%
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1J. Vidales vs Sporting Cristal defense: Melgar's top scorer will look to exploit any defensive lapses.
2N. Quagliata vs Y. Yotún: A battle of creative midfielders, both key to their team's attacking output.
3B. Cuesta vs Sporting Cristal center-backs: Cuesta's physical presence and finishing ability will test the away defense.
Strengths · Weaknesses

FBC Melgar

  • Strong home record (6W-1D-2L)
  • Dominant head-to-head history (6 wins in last 10)
  • Failed to score in 2 of last 5 games
  • Relatively low average goals scored per game (1.2)

Sporting Cristal

  • Unbeaten in last 4 matches
  • Averaging 1.6 goals per game, higher than Melgar
  • Lower win rate (29%)
  • Poor head-to-head record against Melgar

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
50%
API-Football
50%
50%
FBC Melgar504010

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (50%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisMedium Confidence

Based on the data, FBC Melgar are the clear favourites to win this Liga 1 clash against Sporting Cristal. The bookmaker-implied probabilities give Melgar a 51% chance, and the API-Football model also predicts a Melgar victory, reinforcing the confidence in this outcome.

Form Analysis: Both teams come into this match on a 4-game unbeaten streak, but Melgar have a superior win rate (50% vs 29%) and have scored more goals overall (32 vs 28). Defensively, both sides concede an average of 1.0 goals per game, but Melgar have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, matching Cristal's defensive record.

Key Factors: The head-to-head record heavily favours Melgar, with 6 wins in the last 10 meetings compared to Cristal's 3. Additionally, Melgar boast a strong home record (6W-1D-2L) and are placed higher in the standings (2nd vs 6th). The API comparison also gives Melgar a significant edge in attack (63% vs 37%) and defense (62% vs 38%).

Conclusion: With home advantage, superior form, and a dominant head-to-head record, FBC Melgar are well-positioned to secure a victory. Sporting Cristal will need to overcome a strong Melgar side that has been consistent at home.

Statistical ContextFBC Melgar

Double chance : FBC Melgar or draw

Team Comparison

AI Powered
FBC MelgarSporting Cristal
67%Strength32%
63%Attacking Potential37%
62%Defensive Potential38%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
80%H2H Strength20%
70%Goals H2H30%
67%Wins the Game32%

Statistical Context

FBC Melgar

DWLDW
  • DAug 23, 26H · Alianza Lima1-1
  • WAug 15, 26A · Club Deportivo Los Chankas0-3
  • LAug 9, 26H · FC Cajamarca2-4
  • DAug 2, 26A · UCV Moquegua0-0
  • WJul 18, 26A · Cienciano1-3

Sporting Cristal

LWDWL
  • LAug 21, 26A · Alianza Atletico3-1
  • WAug 16, 26H · Sport Huancayo4-1
  • DAug 8, 26A · Universitario1-1
  • WAug 2, 26H · Juan Pablo II College2-0
  • LJul 30, 26A · RB Bragantino1-0

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
3Alianza Lima5+411WDWDW
4FBC Melgar5+410WLDWW
5Sporting Cristal6+310LWDWL
6Atletico Grau6+210WWDLL

Head to Head

6
FBC Melgar
1
Draws
3
Sporting Cristal
  • Feb 8, 26Sporting Cristal – FBC Melgar1-2
  • Aug 10, 25Sporting Cristal – FBC Melgar1-0
  • Mar 8, 25FBC Melgar – Sporting Cristal1-0
  • Aug 22, 24FBC Melgar – Sporting Cristal2-0
  • Mar 14, 24Sporting Cristal – FBC Melgar1-2

Season Statistics — 2026

FBC MelgarSporting Cristal
Played2223
Goals Scored3938
Goals Conceded2637
Avg Scored1.81.6
Avg Conceded1.21.6
Clean Sheets64

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

FBC MelgarSporting Cristal
Over 2.5 Goals—5/10
Both Teams Scored—5/10
Clean Sheets—3/10

FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal — Match Analysis

FBC Melgar are predicted to win with a 51% probability, backed by a dominant head-to-head record (6 wins in last 10) and strong home form. The main risk is Sporting Cristal's recent unbeaten run and their ability to score consistently.

Based on the data, FBC Melgar are the clear favourites to win this Liga 1 clash against Sporting Cristal. The bookmaker-implied probabilities give Melgar a 51% chance, and the API-Football model also predicts a Melgar victory, reinforcing the confidence in this outcome.

Form Analysis: Both teams come into this match on a 4-game unbeaten streak, but Melgar have a superior win rate (50% vs 29%) and have scored more goals overall (32 vs 28). Defensively, both sides concede an average of 1.0 goals per game, but Melgar have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, matching Cristal's defensive record.

Key Factors: The head-to-head record heavily favours Melgar, with 6 wins in the last 10 meetings compared to Cristal's 3. Additionally, Melgar boast a strong home record (6W-1D-2L) and are placed higher in the standings (2nd vs 6th). The API comparison also gives Melgar a significant edge in attack (63% vs 37%) and defense (62% vs 38%).

Conclusion: With home advantage, superior form, and a dominant head-to-head record, FBC Melgar are well-positioned to secure a victory. Sporting Cristal will need to overcome a strong Melgar side that has been consistent at home.

Win Probabilities: FBC Melgar: 50% · Draw: 30% · Sporting Cristal: 20%

Predicted Score: 2-1 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 55% · Under 2.5: 45% · BTTS: 52%

H2H: FBC Melgar wins: 6 · Draws: 1 · Sporting Cristal wins: 3

Form (latest first): FBC Melgar: DWLDW · Sporting Cristal: LWDWL

  • J. Vidales vs Sporting Cristal defense: Melgar's top scorer will look to exploit any defensive lapses.
  • N. Quagliata vs Y. Yotún: A battle of creative midfielders, both key to their team's attacking output.
  • B. Cuesta vs Sporting Cristal center-backs: Cuesta's physical presence and finishing ability will test the away defense.

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Liga 1

Liga 1

Peru15 · Upcoming Fixtures
Liga 1Peru
Comerciantes Unidos
Aug 2820:00
FC Cajamarca
11.9252%
X3.3330%
25.5618%
Liga 1Peru
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Aug 2918:00
Juan Pablo II College
11.9252%
X4.0025%
24.3523%
Liga 1Peru
UTC Cajamarca
Aug 2920:30
Universitario
Early projection
17.6913%
X6.6715%
21.3972%
Liga 1Peru
Alianza Lima
Aug 3000:30
Deportivo Garcilaso
11.4768%
X4.3523%
211.119%
Liga 1Peru
UCV Moquegua
Aug 3016:00
Alianza Atletico
13.5728%
X3.1332%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
ADT
Aug 3018:15
Sport Huancayo
12.5040%
X3.5728%
23.1332%
Liga 1Peru
Sport Boys
Aug 3020:30
Sporting Cristal
12.5040%
X3.1332%
23.5728%
Liga 1Peru
Cienciano
Aug 3100:00
Cusco
12.4441%
X3.2331%
23.5728%
Liga 1Peru
Atletico Grau
Aug 3120:00
FBC Melgar
13.5728%
X3.1332%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
FC Cajamarca
Sep 418:00
Cienciano
Early projection
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
Liga 1Peru
Alianza Atletico
Sep 420:15
UTC Cajamarca
Early projection
11.3077%
X7.1414%
211.119%
Liga 1Peru
Sport Huancayo
Sep 520:00
Sport Boys
Early projection
13.0333%
X3.7027%
22.5040%
Liga 1Peru
Cusco
Sep 523:00
UCV Moquegua
Early projection
11.8953%
X4.7621%
23.8526%
Liga 1Peru
Universitario
Sep 601:30
Comerciantes Unidos
Early projection
11.6959%
X5.0020%
24.7621%
Liga 1Peru
Sporting Cristal
Sep 616:00
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Early projection
11.7956%
X4.7621%
24.3523%