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  1. Home
  2. La Liga
  3. Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Prediction • La Liga·Alaves·Atletico Madrid

La Liga
La Liga
Oct 11, 2026
15:00
Early projection · Odds pending
Alaves

Alaves

Home
VS
VS
Stadium
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Early projection · Odds pending
PREDICTED WINNER
Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid

Away
Stadium
Estadio Mendizorrotza
Win Probabilities
31%
Alaves
24%
Draw
45%
Atletico Madrid
Home3.2331%
Draw4.1724%
Away2.2245%

Oracle's Vision

Early projection
“

Alaves are narrow favourites for this La Liga clash, buoyed by a perfect home record and a five-match unbeaten streak, while Atletico Madrid arrive on a two-match losing run. The main risk is Atletico's historical head-to-head dominance, which could inspire an upset.

See our exact score, over/under 2.5 and BTTS call for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid.

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Momentum

Recent Matches

Team Momentum

Last 5
6.0Alaves
/10
4.0Atletico Madrid
Alaves
FormLatest first
LWWDW
Win Rate60%
Atletico Madrid
FormLatest first
LLWDW
Win Rate40%
Momentum AdvantageAlaves+2.0

Score Predictions

Most Likely Score

Confidence Breakdown

Weather Impact

Alaves
Home

Alaves

Form
WDWWL
Latest first
15
Pos
42
Pts
+7
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 4 matches)

Clean Sheets250%
Goal Diff+7
  • Excellent home record (3 wins from 3)
  • Strong defensive form (3 goals conceded in 5)
  • High confidence from 5-match unbeaten streak
N. Valentini
Red Card
Suspended
A. Manas
Injury
Injured
F. Garces
Suspended
Suspended
T. Mendes
Knee Injury
Injured
L. Boye
Muscle Injury
Injured
T. Martinez
Foot Injury
Injured
M. Rodriguez
Ankle Injury
Injured

Head to Head

Last 10
Alaves
Alaves
2Wins
2
Draws
Atletico Madrid
6Wins
Atletico Madrid
20%20%60%

Recent Matches

Last 10
Jan182026
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
1-0
Loss
AlavesAlaves
Aug302025
AlavesAlaves
1-1
Draw
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
May32025
AlavesAlaves
0-0
Draw
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
Nov232024
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
2-1
Loss
AlavesAlaves
Apr212024
AlavesAlaves
2-0
Win
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
Oct292023
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
2-1
Loss
AlavesAlaves
Apr22022
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
4-1
Loss
AlavesAlaves
Sep252021
AlavesAlaves
1-0
Win
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
Mar212021
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
1-0
Loss
AlavesAlaves
Jan32021
AlavesAlaves
1-2
Loss
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid

Past Predictions

100%1/1 correct

Atletico Madrid 1 - 0 Alaves

Jan 18, 2026

72% / 19% / 9%

Alaves3-5-2vs3-5-2Atletico MadridPredicted Lineup · high

Tactical Matchup: Tactical stalemate. Coaching adjustments crucial.

See the full predicted line-ups ↓

Injury Report

Current team availability status

Data Accuracy: Player availability is highly accurate (~90%), but specific injury diagnoses and recovery timelines may not reflect the latest medical updates (~70% accuracy).

Alaves

7Out

6 key players

Atletico Madrid

8Out

6 key players

Alaves

Team

Alaves

Players Out

7(6 key)
N. Valentini

N. Valentini

SUSPENSION
Status:Suspended
A. Manas

A. Manas

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

F. Garces

F. Garces

MODERATE
Status:Suspended
T. Mendes

T. Mendes

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

L. Boye

L. Boye

MODERATE
Injury:Muscle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

T. Martinez

T. Martinez

MODERATE
Injury:Foot Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-8 weeks

M. Rodriguez

M. Rodriguez

MODERATE
Injury:Ankle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-8 weeks

Atletico Madrid

Team

Atletico Madrid

Players Out

8(6 key)
R. Le Normand

R. Le Normand

SUSPENSION
Status:Suspended
A. Ortiz

A. Ortiz

SUSPENSION
Status:Suspended
A. Sorloth

A. Sorloth

MODERATE
Injury:Muscle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

C. Romero

C. Romero

MODERATE
Injury:Lacking Match Fitness

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

P. Barrios

P. Barrios

MODERATE
Injury:Muscle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

J. Alvarez

J. Alvarez

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

T. Lemar

T. Lemar

MODERATE
Injury:Coach's decision

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

O. Vargas

O. Vargas

MODERATE
Injury:Coach's decision

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

La Liga

League Statistics

La Liga • Standings & Top Performers

Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Barcelona
Barcelona
4400172+1512
2
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
5401144+1012
3
Alaves
AlavesHome
5311115+610
4
Sevilla
Sevilla
531186+210
5
Real Betis
Real Betis
43015509
6
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
422085+38
7
Espanyol
Espanyol
521285+37
8
Atletico Madrid
Atletico MadridAway
421176+17
9
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
521276+17
10
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
52129907
11
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
521268-27
12
Osasuna
Osasuna
521258-37
13
Levante
Levante
41215505
14
Getafe
Getafe
411225-34
15
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
5113814-64
16
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
503225-33
17
Villarreal
Villarreal
402268-22
18
Malaga
Malaga
402217-62
19
Elche
Elche
5023613-72
20
Valencia
Valencia
5014110-91
Champions League
Relegation
HomeAway

Oracle's Vision

Early projection

Atletico Madrid

Odds pending

Win Probabilities

31%Alaves
24%Draw
45%Atletico Madrid

Key Markets

Predicted ScoreBTTSOver 2.5
KickoffSun, Oct 11 · 15:00
StadiumEstadio Mendizorrotza
League StatsLa Liga
Line-ups →Head-to-head →Injuries · AlavesInjuries · Atletico Madrid</> Embed this prediction

Statistical Context

Alaves

LWWDW
  • LSep 12, 26A · Racing Santander2-1
  • WSep 6, 26H · Osasuna5-2
  • WAug 28, 26H · Villarreal1-0
  • DAug 20, 26A · Rayo Vallecano1-1
  • WAug 15, 26H · Getafe3-0

Atletico Madrid

LLWDW
  • LSep 9, 26A · Liverpool2-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · Athletic Club3-0
  • WAug 29, 26A · Sevilla1-3
  • DAug 23, 26H · Villarreal2-2
  • WAug 19, 26H · Malaga2-0

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
2Real Madrid5+1012WLWWW
3Alaves5+610LWWDW
4Sevilla5+210WDLWW
5Real Betis409WLWW
6Deportivo La Coruna4+38WWDD
7Espanyol5+37WDLLW
8Atletico Madrid4+17LWDW
9Athletic Club5+17DWWLL

Head to Head

2
Alaves
2
Draws
6
Atletico Madrid
  • Jan 18, 26Atletico Madrid – Alaves1-0
  • Aug 30, 25Alaves – Atletico Madrid1-1
  • May 3, 25Alaves – Atletico Madrid0-0
  • Nov 23, 24Atletico Madrid – Alaves2-1
  • Apr 21, 24Alaves – Atletico Madrid2-0

Season Statistics — 2026

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Played44
Goals Scored107
Goals Conceded36
Avg Scored2.51.8
Avg Conceded0.81.5
Clean Sheets21

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

AlavesAtletico Madrid
Over 2.5 Goals—6/10
Both Teams Scored—4/10
Clean Sheets—4/10

Predicted line-ups: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid

Predicted XI

Alaves

3-5-2Formation· Coach: Luis García

Atletico Madrid

3-5-2Formation· Coach: D. Simeone

  1. 1J. Musso
  1. 27Jorge Dominguez
  2. 22Álex Grimaldo
  3. 17D. Hancko
  1. 14Marcos Llorente
  2. 8Pablo Barrios
  3. 5J. Cardoso
  4. 46J. Castillo
  5. 23M. Hjulmand
  1. 7Lee Kang-In
  2. 19J. Álvarez
  1. 12Hugo Novoa
  2. 15L. Boyé
  1. 10Carles Aleñá
  2. 8Antonio Blanco
  3. 24Selu Diallo
  4. 6Guevara
  5. 19Pablo Ibáñez
  1. 17Jonny
  2. 16V. Koski
  3. 14N. Tenaglia
  1. 13A. Giménez

Bench

  • 1Sivera
  • 3Yusi
  • 23C. Benavídez
  • 4Denis Suárez
  • 7Angel Pérez
  • 21A. Rebbach
  • 9M. Díaz

Out

  • N. Valentini · Red Card
  • A. Manas · Injury
  • F. Garces · Suspended
  • T. Mendes · Knee Injury
  • L. Boye · Muscle Injury
  • T. Martinez · Foot Injury
  • M. Rodriguez · Ankle Injury

Bench

  • 13J. Oblak
  • 24Robin Le Normand
  • 30Dani Martínez
  • 18Marc Pubill
  • 6Koke
  • 4Rodrigo Mendoza
  • 10Álex Baena

Out

  • R. Le Normand · Red Card
  • A. Ortiz · Red Card
  • A. Sorloth · Muscle Injury
  • C. Romero · Lacking Match Fitness
  • P. Barrios · Muscle Injury
  • J. Alvarez · Injury
  • T. Lemar · Coach's decision
  • O. Vargas · Coach's decision

Predicted line-ups based on recent matches and absences; official line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

Alaves vs Atletico Madrid — Expert Prediction & Analysis

Alaves are narrow favourites for this La Liga clash, buoyed by a perfect home record and a five-match unbeaten streak, while Atletico Madrid arrive on a two-match losing run. The main risk is Atletico's historical head-to-head dominance, which could inspire an upset.

Alaves are the narrow favourites for this La Liga clash at Mendizorrotza, with the statistical model and recent form both pointing to a home win. The Basque side sit second in the table and boast a perfect home record, while Atletico Madrid arrive in seventh place on a two-match losing streak.…

Win Probabilities: Alaves: 31% · Draw: 24% · Atletico Madrid: 45%

H2H: Alaves wins: 2 · Draws: 2 · Atletico Madrid wins: 6

Form (latest first): Alaves: LWWDW · Atletico Madrid: LLWDW

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La Liga

Spain15 · Upcoming Fixtures
La LigaSpain
Getafe
Sep 1316:30
Deportivo La Coruna
12.5040%
X3.0333%
23.7027%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Real Sociedad
Sep 1319:00
Atletico Madrid
14.1724%
X3.2331%
22.2245%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Villarreal
Sep 1419:00
Real Betis
12.5040%
X3.3330%
23.3330%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Rayo Vallecano
Sep 1517:00
Espanyol
12.5639%
X3.2331%
23.3330%
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La LigaSpain
Alaves
Sep 1518:00
Valencia
12.0449%
X3.2331%
25.0020%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Elche
Sep 1519:30
Real Madrid
112.508%
X5.2619%
21.3773%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Atletico Madrid
Sep 1617:00
Osasuna
11.5664%
X4.0025%
29.0911%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Deportivo La Coruna
Sep 1617:00
Sevilla
12.5639%
X3.4529%
23.1332%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Barcelona
Sep 1619:30
Racing Santander
11.1984%
X8.3312%
225.004%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Levante
Sep 1619:30
Athletic Club
12.4441%
X3.1332%
23.7027%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
La LigaSpain
Real Betis
Sep 1717:00
Getafe
11.9252%
X3.2331%
25.8817%
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La LigaSpain
Malaga
Sep 1719:30
Villarreal
14.5522%
X3.3330%
22.0848%
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La LigaSpain
Espanyol
Sep 1819:00
Elche
12.1347%
X3.2331%
24.5522%
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Osasuna
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Rayo Vallecano
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12.4441%
X3.8526%
23.0333%
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Athletic Club
Sep 1914:15
Alaves
12.5040%
X3.2331%
23.4529%
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