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  1. Home
  2. Segunda División
  3. Almeria vs Leganes

Almeria vs Leganes

Result • Segunda División·Almeria·Leganes

Segunda División
Segunda División
Oct 11, 2026
14:15
high Confidence
WINNER
Almeria

Almeria

Home
Final Score
3-0
Predicted: 2-0
Final Score
3-0
Predicted: 2-0
Odds
11.61
X4.05
24.85
Stadium
UD Almería Stadium
high Confidence
Leganes

Leganes

Away
Odds
11.61
X4.05
24.85
Stadium
UD Almería Stadium
Win Probabilities
56%
Almeria
27%
Draw
17%
Leganes
Home1.6156%
Draw4.0527%
Away4.8517%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

Almeria are clear favourites, backed by a five-match winning streak and a perfect home record, while Leganes have lost their last two and struggle for goals. The main risk is complacency, but the form and home advantage make an Almeria win highly likely.

Our AI model analyzes this Segunda División fixture between Almeria and Leganes using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns Almeria a 56% win probability, a 27% chance of a draw, and Leganes a 17% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-0. Both teams to score probability: 57%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 57%

Match Events

  1. 13'
    Yellow Card: Marvelous Antolín GarzónLeganes
    Yellow Card: Marvelous Antolín Garzón
  2. Substitution: Miguel De La FuenteOut: Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo
    45'
    Substitution: Miguel De La FuenteAlmeria · Out: Thalys Henrique Gomes de Araújo
  3. Goal: Miguel De La FuenteAssist: Stefan Džodić
    52'
    Goal: Miguel De La FuenteAlmeria · Assist: Stefan Džodić
  4. Goal: Miguel De La FuenteAssist: Brian Cipenga
    57'
    Goal: Miguel De La FuenteAlmeria · Assist: Brian Cipenga
  5. Goal: Daijiro ChirinoAssist: Quim junyent
    61'
    Goal: Daijiro ChirinoAlmeria · Assist: Quim junyent
  6. 63'
    Substitution: Francisco MonteroLeganes · Out: Marvelous Antolín Garzón
    Substitution: Francisco MonteroOut: Marvelous Antolín Garzón
  7. 63'
    Substitution: Yassine KechtaLeganes · Out: Miguel Atienza
    Substitution: Yassine KechtaOut: Miguel Atienza
  8. 64'
    Substitution: Enric FranquesaLeganes · Out: Álvaro Tejero
    Substitution: Enric FranquesaOut: Álvaro Tejero
  9. 64'
    Substitution: Patrick SokoLeganes · Out: Ismael Gharbi
    Substitution: Patrick SokoOut: Ismael Gharbi
  10. 66'
    VAR: VAR · Original decision changedLeganes · Dani Rodriguez
    VAR: VAR · Original decision changedDani Rodriguez
  11. 66'
    Yellow Card: Yassine KechtaLeganes
    Yellow Card: Yassine Kechta
  12. 67'
    Yellow Card: Enric FranquesaLeganes
    Yellow Card: Enric Franquesa
  13. 71'
    Substitution: Álex MillánLeganes · Out: Álvaro Morata
    Substitution: Álex MillánOut: Álvaro Morata
  14. Substitution: Marcos LunaOut: Daijiro Chirino
    71'
    Substitution: Marcos LunaAlmeria · Out: Daijiro Chirino
  15. Substitution: Nicolás Melamed RibaudoOut: Quim junyent
    71'
    Substitution: Nicolás Melamed RibaudoAlmeria · Out: Quim junyent
  16. Yellow Card: Javier Muñoz Jiménez
    74'
    Yellow Card: Javier Muñoz JiménezAlmeria
  17. 77'
    Yellow Card: Francisco MonteroLeganes
    Yellow Card: Francisco Montero
  18. Substitution: Jon MorcilloOut: Brian Cipenga
    81'
    Substitution: Jon MorcilloAlmeria · Out: Brian Cipenga
  19. Yellow Card: Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo
    82'
    Yellow Card: Nicolás Melamed RibaudoAlmeria
  20. Substitution: Léo BaptistãoOut: Javier Muñoz Jiménez
    86'
    Substitution: Léo BaptistãoAlmeria · Out: Javier Muñoz Jiménez
  21. 90'
    Yellow Card: Álex MillánLeganes
    Yellow Card: Álex Millán
Share Prediction

Match stats · predicted vs real

3 / 3stats picks landed in this match
Almeria 3-0 Leganes
FT
MarketPredictedRealOur pickResult
Corners per team✓ hitPredicted 6.4 – 3.5Real 8 – 3Almeria more corners✓ hit
Total corners—Predicted 9.8Real 11chances only—
Yellow cards✓ hitPredicted 4.9Real 7Over 3.5✓ hit
Half-time score—Predicted 0-0Real 0-0chances only—
Shots on target✓ hitPredicted 6.1 – 4.1Real 7 – 1Almeria more shots on target✓ hit
Total shots—Predicted 18.2 – 12.1Real 17 – 7chances only—

Our pre-match numbers for this match, next to the final statistics.

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1Sergio Arribas vs Miguel Atienza: Arribas' creativity and vision will be crucial for Almeria's attacking play, while Atienza's defensive awareness and tackling in midfield will be key to disrupting Almeria's rhythm.
2Léo Baptistão vs Lalo Aguilar: Baptistão's movement and finishing ability will test Aguilar's marking and positioning in the Leganes defense.
3Adri Embarba vs Enric Franquesa: Embarba's pace and dribbling on the wing will challenge Franquesa's defensive capabilities, potentially creating chances for Almeria.
Strengths · Weaknesses

Almeria

  • Five-match winning streak with 13 goals scored
  • Solid defense with three clean sheets in last five
  • Occasional lapses in concentration
  • Over-reliance on momentum

Leganes

  • Capable of scoring goals on the break
  • Experienced goalkeeper in Raúl Fernández
  • Two consecutive losses and poor form
  • Failed to score in four of last five games

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
56%
API-Football
50%
53%
Almeria52399

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (53%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Almeria are clear favourites to win this Segunda División encounter against Leganes, with the bookmaker odds and the statistical model both pointing to a home victory.

Form Analysis: Almeria arrive on a remarkable five-match winning streak, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 5, with three clean sheets in that run. In contrast, Leganes have lost their last two games and have failed to score in four of their last five, managing only 6 goals while conceding 11. The momentum is overwhelmingly with the home side.

Key Factors: Almeria's home record is perfect this season (4 wins from 4), and they sit third in the table with 18 points, while Leganes are 15th with 11 points. The head-to-head record is mixed, but Almeria have won three of the last five meetings. No significant injuries or suspensions are reported for either side, so both teams should be at full strength.

Conclusion: Given the stark contrast in form, home advantage, and league positions, Almeria are expected to continue their winning run. Leganes will need a drastic improvement to take anything from this game.

Statistical ContextAlmeria

Winner : Almeria

Team Comparison

AI Powered
AlmeriaLeganes
76%Strength24%
77%Attacking Potential23%
77%Defensive Potential23%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
71%H2H Strength29%
63%Goals H2H38%
76%Wins the Game24%

More information

Segunda División predicted line-ups: Gameweek 1211/11Head-to-headAlmeria – LeganesInjuriesAlmeriaInjuriesLeganesLive scores

Statistical Context

Almeria

DWDWW
  • DOct 31, 26A · Eibar1-1
  • WOct 27, 26A · Castellonense1-2
  • DOct 24, 26H · Oviedo2-2
  • WOct 17, 26A · Real Sociedad II2-4
  • WOct 3, 26H · Burgos2-1

Leganes

DLLLW
  • DOct 24, 26H · Mallorca1-1
  • LOct 16, 26H · Cordoba0-1
  • LOct 3, 26A · Cadiz4-0
  • LSep 28, 26H · Castellón0-2
  • WSep 20, 26H · Granada CF3-2

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
1Castellón11+1826WWLDW
2Almeria12+1326DDWWW
3Eibar12+723DLDLW
16Valladolid11012LLWDW
17Leganes11-912DLLLL
18Real Sociedad II12-711WLLLL

Head to Head

3
Almeria
2
Draws
2
Leganes
  • Apr 5, 26Almeria – Leganes2-1
  • Nov 22, 25Leganes – Almeria0-3
  • Jan 15, 25Almeria – Leganes2-3
  • May 29, 22Leganes – Almeria2-2
  • Oct 29, 21Almeria – Leganes1-0

Season Statistics — 2026

AlmeriaLeganes
Played1111
Goals Scored227
Goals Conceded916
Avg Scored2.00.6
Avg Conceded0.81.4
Clean Sheets53

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

AlmeriaLeganes
Over 2.5 Goals7/10—
Both Teams Scored7/10—
Clean Sheets2/10—

Almeria vs Leganes — Match Analysis

Almeria are clear favourites, backed by a five-match winning streak and a perfect home record, while Leganes have lost their last two and struggle for goals. The main risk is complacency, but the form and home advantage make an Almeria win highly likely.

Almeria are clear favourites to win this Segunda División encounter against Leganes, with the bookmaker odds and the statistical model both pointing to a home victory.

Form Analysis: Almeria arrive on a remarkable five-match winning streak, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 5, with three clean sheets in that run. In contrast, Leganes have lost their last two games and have failed to score in four of their last five, managing only 6 goals while conceding 11. The momentum is overwhelmingly with the home side.

Key Factors: Almeria's home record is perfect this season (4 wins from 4), and they sit third in the table with 18 points, while Leganes are 15th with 11 points. The head-to-head record is mixed, but Almeria have won three of the last five meetings. No significant injuries or suspensions are reported for either side, so both teams should be at full strength.

Conclusion: Given the stark contrast in form, home advantage, and league positions, Almeria are expected to continue their winning run. Leganes will need a drastic improvement to take anything from this game.

Win Probabilities: Almeria: 56% · Draw: 27% · Leganes: 17%

Predicted Score: 2-0 (15.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 53% · Under 2.5: 47% · BTTS: 57%

H2H: Almeria wins: 3 · Draws: 2 · Leganes wins: 2

Form (latest first): Almeria: DWDWW · Leganes: DLLLW

  • Sergio Arribas vs Miguel Atienza: Arribas' creativity and vision will be crucial for Almeria's attacking play, while Atienza's defensive awareness and tackling in midfield will be key to disrupting Almeria's rhythm.
  • Léo Baptistão vs Lalo Aguilar: Baptistão's movement and finishing ability will test Aguilar's marking and positioning in the Leganes defense.
  • Adri Embarba vs Enric Franquesa: Embarba's pace and dribbling on the wing will challenge Franquesa's defensive capabilities, potentially creating chances for Almeria.

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Segunda División

Segunda División

Spain15 · Upcoming Fixtures
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Oviedo
Nov 215:15
Las Palmas
11.9252%
X3.3330%
25.5618%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Valladolid
Nov 217:30
Leganes
12.0050%
X3.2331%
25.2619%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Mallorca
Nov 220:00
Cadiz
11.5664%
X4.0025%
29.0911%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Castellón
Nov 619:30
Eibar
11.7557%
X3.8526%
25.8817%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Burgos
Nov 713:00
Celta de Vigo II
11.7557%
X3.7027%
26.2516%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Cadiz
Nov 715:15
Oviedo
Early projection
12.9434%
X3.7027%
22.5639%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Leganes
Nov 717:30
Albacete
12.5639%
X3.2331%
23.3330%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Cordoba
Nov 717:30
AD Ceuta FC
11.5664%
X4.3523%
27.6913%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Granada CF
Nov 720:00
Tenerife
12.1746%
X3.1332%
24.5522%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
FC Andorra
Nov 813:00
Mallorca
Early projection
14.0025%
X4.5522%
21.8953%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Girona
Nov 815:15
Almeria
12.0848%
X3.3330%
24.5522%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Las Palmas
Nov 817:30
Eldense
12.3343%
X3.3330%
23.7027%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Sporting Gijon
Nov 817:30
Valladolid
Early projection
11.7557%
X5.0020%
24.3523%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Sabadell
Nov 919:30
Real Sociedad II
Early projection
11.6461%
X5.2619%
25.0020%
Segunda DivisiónSpain
Leganes
Nov 1319:30
Burgos
Early projection
13.2331%
X4.0025%
22.2744%

Betting Tips

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