Based on the data, Once Caldas is predicted to have a slight edge, with a narrow away win or draw as the most likely outcomes, aligning closely with market probabilities and API-Football model predictions.
Form Analysis: Águilas Doradas shows mixed form (WLWDL) with 16 goals for and 17 against in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, and currently on a 1-win streak. Once Caldas has a form of DDLDW with 26 goals for and 19 against, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, and is on a 2-draw streak. Once Caldas has a better attack rating (62% vs 38%) and higher average goals scored, while Águilas Doradas has a slight defensive advantage (56% vs 44%).
Key Factors: 1. Market probabilities and API-Football model both indicate Once Caldas as the favorite or in a draw/win scenario, with API predicting a 45% away win and 45% draw. 2. Once Caldas holds a higher league position (4th vs 8th) and better goal difference (+7 vs -1), suggesting stronger overall performance. 3. Head-to-head history is balanced (4 wins for Águilas Doradas, 3 draws, 3 wins for Once Caldas), providing no clear psychological edge.
Conclusion: The data supports Once Caldas as the slight favorite, with probabilities adjusted to reflect market odds and statistical models, indicating a close match likely decided by small margins.
