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Matches
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  1. Home
  2. Championship
  3. Derby vs Stoke City

Derby vs Stoke City

Prediction • Championship·Derby·Stoke City

Championship
Championship
Oct 17, 2026
14:00
Early projection · Odds pending
Derby

Derby

Home
VS
VS
Stadium
Pride Park
Early projection · Odds pending
PREDICTED WINNER
Stoke City

Stoke City

Away
Stadium
Pride Park
Win Probabilities
25%
Derby
21%
Draw
54%
Stoke City
Home4.0025%
Draw4.7621%
Away1.8554%

Oracle's Vision

Early projection
“

Stoke City are favored at 54% to win away at Derby. The draw is rated 21% and the home win 25%, so the numbers side with the visitors.

See our exact score, over/under 2.5 and BTTS call for Derby vs Stoke City.

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Momentum

Recent Matches

Team Momentum

Last 5
2.0Derby
/10
8.0Stoke City
Derby
FormLatest first
DLLLW
Win Rate20%
Stoke City
FormLatest first
WWDWW
Win Rate80%
Momentum AdvantageStoke City+6.0

Featured Players

Compare the key players from each team

Key Battle

M
Joe Ward
7.3

Joe Ward

Derby

VS
Tatsuki Seko
6.9

Tatsuki Seko

Stoke City

18ATT17
100TEC100
70TAC51
31DEF39
70CRE23

Team Streaks

Statistical trends from recent matches

Team Streaks

Last 10 Matches
Scoring
7/10
Over 2.5 Goals
6/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
1.5
Avg Scored
1.5
Defense
2/10
Clean Sheets
4/10
1.3
Avg Conceded
1.2
Match Flow
6/10
Scored First
5/10
1.9
Avg Cards
2.2
6.0
Avg Corners
5.3

Score Predictions

Most Likely Score

Confidence Breakdown

Weather Impact

Derby
Home

Derby

Form
WLLLD
Latest first
19
Pos
50
Pts
-7
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 7 matches)

Clean Sheets114%
Goal Diff-7
  • Strong historical head-to-head record with five wins in the last ten meetings
  • Home crowd at Pride Park can lift a struggling side
  • Capable of grinding out a draw, as shown by one home stalemate this season
C. Forsyth
Knee Injury
Injured
C. Morris
Calf Injury
Injured
L. Travis
Leg Injury
Injured
H. Meister
Injury
Injured
J. Widell Zetterstrom
Knee Injury
Injured
P. Agyemang
Achilles Injury
Injured
R. Brewster
Injury
Injured
D. Murkin
Hamstring Injury
Injured
M. Clarke
Calf Injury
Injured
S. Szmodics
Thigh Injury
Injured
F. Bilbija
Back Injury
Injured

Head to Head

Last 10
Derby
Derby
5Wins
2
Draws
Stoke City
3Wins
Stoke City
50%20%30%

Recent Matches

Last 10
Apr62026
DerbyDerby
2-0
Win
Stoke CityStoke City
Aug92025
Stoke CityStoke City
3-1
Loss
DerbyDerby
May32025
DerbyDerby
0-0
Draw
Stoke CityStoke City
Nov22024
Stoke CityStoke City
2-1
Loss
DerbyDerby
Jul222023
DerbyDerby
3-0
Win
Stoke CityStoke City
Dec302021
Stoke CityStoke City
1-2
Win
DerbyDerby
Sep182021
DerbyDerby
2-1
Win
Stoke CityStoke City
Mar202021
Stoke CityStoke City
1-0
Loss
DerbyDerby
Dec122020
DerbyDerby
0-0
Draw
Stoke CityStoke City
Jan312020
DerbyDerby
4-0
Win
Stoke CityStoke City

Past Predictions

100%1/1 correct

Derby 2 - 0 Stoke City

Apr 6, 2026

46% / 29% / 25%

Derby4-2-3-1vs3-4-2-1Stoke CityPredicted Lineup · high

Tactical Matchup: Tactical matchup will test both managers' adaptability.

See the full predicted line-ups ↓

Injury Report

Current team availability status

Data Accuracy: Player availability is highly accurate (~90%), but specific injury diagnoses and recovery timelines may not reflect the latest medical updates (~70% accuracy).

Derby

11Out

11 key players

Stoke City

9Out

8 key players

Derby

Team

Derby

Players Out

11(11 key)
C. Forsyth

C. Forsyth

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

C. Morris

C. Morris

MODERATE
Injury:Calf Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

L. Travis

L. Travis

MODERATE
Injury:Leg Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-6 weeks

H. Meister

H. Meister

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

J. Widell Zetterstrom

J. Widell Zetterstrom

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

P. Agyemang

P. Agyemang

MODERATE
Injury:Achilles Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

R. Brewster

R. Brewster

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

D. Murkin

D. Murkin

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

M. Clarke

M. Clarke

MODERATE
Injury:Calf Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

S. Szmodics

S. Szmodics

MODERATE
Injury:Thigh Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

F. Bilbija

F. Bilbija

MODERATE
Injury:Back Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

4-12 weeks

Stoke City

Team

Stoke City

Players Out

9(8 key)
B. Gibson

B. Gibson

MODERATE
Injury:Concussion

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

1-3 weeks

S. Ingelsson

S. Ingelsson

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

A. Ampah

A. Ampah

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

S. Gallagher

S. Gallagher

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

B. Lawal

B. Lawal

MODERATE
Injury:Muscle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

J. Tchamadeu

J. Tchamadeu

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

D. Soumare

D. Soumare

MODERATE
Injury:Injured

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

A. Cresswell

A. Cresswell

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

L. Cisse

L. Cisse

MINOR
Injury:Knock

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

1-2 weeks

Championship

League Statistics

Championship • Standings & Top Performers

Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Swansea
Swansea
8521136+717
2
West Ham
West Ham
84312211+1115
3
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
84311612+415
4
West Brom
West Brom
7421107+314
5
QPR
QPR
8341107+313
6
Stoke City
Stoke CityAway
84131312+113
7
Bristol City
Bristol City
84131112-113
8
Charlton
Charlton
8332710-312
9
Wolves
Wolves
63211410+411
10
Birmingham
Birmingham
82511211+111
11
Millwall
Millwall
83231515011
12
Lincoln
Lincoln
832378-111
13
Southampton
Southampton
84221910+910
14
Wrexham
Wrexham
8242912-310
15
Norwich
Norwich
7304131309
16
Blackburn
Blackburn
8233121209
17
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
8233911-29
18
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
7223910-18
19
Watford
Watford
8224710-38
20
Cardiff
Cardiff
81431012-27
21
Bolton
Bolton
7214712-57
22
Derby
DerbyHome
8125714-75
23
Preston
Preston
8116815-74
24
Burnley
Burnley
8044917-84
Champions League
Relegation
HomeAway

Oracle's Vision

Early projection

Stoke City

Odds pending

Win Probabilities

25%Derby
21%Draw
54%Stoke City

Key Markets

Predicted ScoreBTTSOver 2.5
KickoffSat, Oct 17 · 14:00
StadiumPride Park
League StatsChampionship
Line-ups →Head-to-head →Injuries · DerbyInjuries · Stoke CityLive scores →

Statistical Context

Derby

DLLLW
  • DSep 19, 26A · Burnley1-1
  • LSep 12, 26H · Birmingham1-2
  • LSep 9, 26H · West Brom0-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · West Ham3-0
  • WSep 1, 26A · Portsmouth0-2

Stoke City

WWDWW
  • WSep 19, 26H · Sheffield Utd2-1
  • WSep 12, 26A · Watford1-2
  • DSep 8, 26A · Cardiff1-1
  • WSep 5, 26H · Charlton4-0
  • WSep 1, 26H · Norwich1-0

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
5QPR8+313DDDLW
6Stoke City8+113WWDWW
7Bristol City8-113WLLWW
21Bolton7-57WLLLL
22Derby8-75DLLLW
23Preston8-74DLLWL

Head to Head

5
Derby
2
Draws
3
Stoke City
  • Apr 6, 26Derby – Stoke City2-0
  • Aug 9, 25Stoke City – Derby3-1
  • May 3, 25Derby – Stoke City0-0
  • Nov 2, 24Stoke City – Derby2-1
  • Jul 22, 23Derby – Stoke City3-0

Season Statistics — 2026

DerbyStoke City
Played77
Goals Scored611
Goals Conceded1311
Avg Scored0.91.6
Avg Conceded1.91.6
Clean Sheets12

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

DerbyStoke City
Over 2.5 Goals7/106/10
Both Teams Scored7/103/10
Clean Sheets2/104/10

Predicted line-ups: Derby vs Stoke City

Predicted XI

Derby

4-2-3-1Formation· Coach: J. Eustace

Stoke City

3-4-2-1Formation· Coach: M. Robins

  1. 24J. Griffiths
  1. 43F. Anderson
  2. 21L. Bombino
  3. 5L. Graham
  1. 17E. Bocat
  2. 2B. Johnson
  3. 13J. Devenny
  4. 8E. Galbraith
  1. 4B. Pearson
  2. 19T. Rigo
  1. 7J. McGlynn
  1. 33C. Blackett-Taylor
  1. 20A. Mowatt
  2. 4D. Ozoh
  3. 16M. Fuseini
  1. 8B. Clark
  2. 29O. Fraulo
  1. 44E. Cashin
  2. 22M. Johnston
  3. 6S. Langås
  4. 24R. Nyambe
  1. 31J. Vickers

Bench

  • 1J. Widell Zetterström
  • 28D. Sanderson
  • 18C. Taylor
  • 23J. Ward
  • 26R. Hedges
  • 19H. Meister
  • 15L. Salvesen

Out

  • C. Forsyth · Knee Injury
  • C. Morris · Calf Injury
  • L. Travis · Leg Injury
  • H. Meister · Injury
  • J. Widell Zetterstrom · Knee Injury
  • P. Agyemang · Achilles Tendon Injury
  • R. Brewster · Injury
  • D. Murkin · Hamstring Injury

Bench

  • 1V. Johansson
  • 40M. Talovierov
  • 16B. Wilmot
  • 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  • 9R. Boženík
  • 11L. Cissé
  • 15G. Hirst

Out

  • B. Gibson · Head Injury
  • S. Ingelsson · Injury
  • A. Ampah · Hamstring Injury
  • S. Gallagher · Injury
  • B. Lawal · Muscle Injury
  • J. Tchamadeu · Knee Injury
  • D. Soumare · Injury
  • A. Cresswell · Knee Injury

Predicted line-ups based on recent matches and absences; official line-ups are confirmed about an hour before kick-off.

Derby vs Stoke City — Expert Prediction & Analysis

Stoke City are favored at 54% to win away at Derby. The draw is rated 21% and the home win 25%, so the numbers side with the visitors.

Stoke City travel to Pride Park as the clear favourites, with the statistical model and the team-comparison data both pointing to an away win. Derby's collapse this season is stark: a three-match losi…

Win Probabilities: Derby: 25% · Draw: 21% · Stoke City: 54%

H2H: Derby wins: 5 · Draws: 2 · Stoke City wins: 3

Form (latest first): Derby: DLLLW · Stoke City: WWDWW

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Sep 19, 2026
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Championship

Championship

England15 · Upcoming Fixtures
ChampionshipEngland
West Ham
Oct 919:00
QPR
Early projection
12.3842%
X3.8526%
23.1332%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
West Brom
Oct 1011:30
Birmingham
Early projection
11.4768%
X5.8817%
26.6715%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Swansea
Oct 1011:30
Norwich
Early projection
11.8554%
X4.5522%
24.1724%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Charlton
Oct 1011:30
Bristol City
Early projection
12.8635%
X3.5728%
22.7037%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Watford
Oct 1014:00
Burnley
Early projection
11.5266%
X5.5618%
26.2516%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Preston
Oct 1014:00
Millwall
Early projection
15.2619%
X5.5618%
21.5963%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Sheffield Utd
Oct 1014:00
Lincoln
Early projection
11.6959%
X5.2619%
24.5522%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Blackburn
Oct 1014:00
Cardiff
Early projection
12.0449%
X4.3523%
23.5728%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Bolton
Oct 1014:00
Stoke City
Early projection
13.3330%
X4.1724%
22.1746%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Derby
Oct 1014:00
Wrexham
Early projection
13.3330%
X4.0025%
22.2245%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Middlesbrough
Oct 1014:00
Wolves
Early projection
11.8953%
X4.5522%
24.0025%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Southampton
Oct 1111:00
Portsmouth
Early projection
11.9651%
X4.5522%
23.7027%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Wolves
Oct 1318:45
Bolton
Early projection
11.5266%
X5.8817%
25.8817%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Cardiff
Oct 1318:45
Watford
Early projection
13.1332%
X4.0025%
22.3343%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Burnley
Oct 1318:45
Charlton
Early projection
15.0020%
X5.2619%
21.6461%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access

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