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  1. Home
  2. Bundesliga
  3. RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli

RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli

Result • Bundesliga·RB Leipzig·FC St. Pauli

Bundesliga
Bundesliga
May 9, 2026
13:30
high Confidence
WINNER
RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

Home
Final Score
2-1
Predicted: 2-0
Final Score
2-1
Predicted: 2-0
Odds
11.30
X5.75
29.00
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
high Confidence
FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli

Away
Odds
11.30
X5.75
29.00
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Win Probabilities
67%
RB Leipzig
23%
Draw
10%
FC St. Pauli
Home1.3067%
Draw5.7523%
Away9.0010%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a dominant home victory as RB Leipzig's attacking force overwhelms a struggling St. Pauli side. Ancient wisdom reveals a clear path to three points for the hosts.

Our AI model analyzes this Bundesliga fixture between RB Leipzig and FC St. Pauli using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns RB Leipzig a 67% win probability, a 23% chance of a draw, and FC St. Pauli a 10% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-0. Both teams to score probability: 40%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 40%

Match Events

  1. Yellow Card: C. Lukeba
    20'
    Yellow Card: C. LukebaRB Leipzig
  2. Goal: X. SchlagerAssist: C. Baumgartner
    45'
    Goal: X. SchlagerRB Leipzig · Assist: C. Baumgartner
  3. Yellow Card: C. Baumgartner
    51'
    Yellow Card: C. BaumgartnerRB Leipzig
  4. Goal: W. OrbanAssist: D. Raum
    55'
    Goal: W. OrbanRB Leipzig · Assist: D. Raum
  5. 64'
    Substitution: H. WahlFC St. Pauli · Out: L. Ritzka
    Substitution: H. WahlOut: L. Ritzka
  6. 64'
    Substitution: F. StevensFC St. Pauli · Out: L. Oppie
    Substitution: F. StevensOut: L. Oppie
  7. Substitution: N. SeiwaldOut: A. Ouedraogo
    69'
    Substitution: N. SeiwaldRB Leipzig · Out: A. Ouedraogo
  8. Substitution: M. FinkgrafeOut: D. Raum
    69'
    Substitution: M. FinkgrafeRB Leipzig · Out: D. Raum
  9. 72'
    Substitution: A. CeesayFC St. Pauli · Out: A. Hountondji
    Substitution: A. CeesayOut: A. Hountondji
  10. Substitution: A. NusaOut: B. Gruda
    80'
    Substitution: A. NusaRB Leipzig · Out: B. Gruda
  11. 86'
    Goal: A. CeesayFC St. Pauli · Assist: J. Irvine
    Goal: A. CeesayAssist: J. Irvine
  12. 89'
    Substitution: M. RasmussenFC St. Pauli · Out: E. Smith
    Substitution: M. RasmussenOut: E. Smith
  13. 89'
    Substitution: D. SinaniFC St. Pauli · Out: C. Metcalfe
    Substitution: D. SinaniOut: C. Metcalfe
  14. Substitution: B. HenrichsOut: R. Baku
    90+2'
    Substitution: B. HenrichsRB Leipzig · Out: R. Baku
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1C. Baumgartner vs St. Pauli defense: Leipzig's top scorer will test a leaky backline.
2Y. Diomande vs St. Pauli midfield: Diomande's creativity could unlock the away defense.
3Rômulo vs St. Pauli center-backs: Physical battle in the box.
Strengths · Weaknesses

RB Leipzig

  • Strong attack averaging 2.0 goals per game
  • Excellent recent form (4 wins in 5)
  • Two key defenders doubtful (Raum, Lukeba)
  • Occasional defensive lapses (conceded 1.4 per game)

FC St. Pauli

  • Compact 3-5-2 defensive shape
  • Occasional counter-attacking threat
  • Poor form (0 wins in 5)
  • Low scoring (0.6 goals per game)

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
67%
API-Football
50%
59%
RB Leipzig58375

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (59%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

RB Leipzig is predicted to win against FC St. Pauli based on overwhelming odds and statistical evidence.

Form Analysis: RB Leipzig have won 4 of their last 5 matches (LWWWW), averaging 2.0 goals per game, while FC St. Pauli are winless in 5 (LLDLD) with only 0.6 goals per game and no clean sheets.

Key Factors: Leipzig sit 3rd with 62 points, 36 points ahead of 17th-placed St. Pauli. The home team's attack (77% vs 23%) and overall comparison (71.7% vs 28.3%) heavily favor Leipzig. St. Pauli are on a 2-loss streak and failed to score in 2 of last 5.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable home win. Leipzig's Champions League form and St. Pauli's relegation struggles make this a mismatch.

Statistical ContextRB Leipzig

Winner : RB Leipzig

Team Comparison

AI Powered
RB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
71%Strength28%
77%Attacking Potential23%
61%Defensive Potential39%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
62%H2H Strength38%
64%Goals H2H36%
71%Wins the Game28%
Head-to-head →Injuries · RB LeipzigInjuries · FC St. PauliLive scores →

Statistical Context

RB Leipzig

WWLWL
  • WOct 13, 26H · PSV Eindhoven1-0
  • WOct 10, 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt6-0
  • LSep 20, 26A · Bayer Leverkusen2-0
  • WSep 13, 26H · Hamburger SV5-0
  • LSep 10, 26A · Como4-1

FC St. Pauli

WDWDL
  • WOct 11, 26H · Karlsruher SC2-0
  • DSep 20, 26A · Energie Cottbus1-1
  • WSep 12, 26H · VfL Wolfsburg1-0
  • DSep 4, 26A · Arminia Bielefeld2-2
  • LAug 30, 26H · 1. FC Kaiserslautern1-2

Head to Head

3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
  • Jan 27, 26FC St. Pauli – RB Leipzig1-1
  • Feb 9, 25RB Leipzig – FC St. Pauli2-0
  • Oct 29, 24RB Leipzig – FC St. Pauli4-2
  • Sep 22, 24FC St. Pauli – RB Leipzig0-0
  • Feb 12, 16FC St. Pauli – RB Leipzig1-0

Season Statistics — 2026

RB LeipzigFC St. Pauli
Played16
Goals Scored18
Goals Conceded48
Avg Scored1.01.3
Avg Conceded4.01.3
Clean Sheets01

RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a dominant home victory as RB Leipzig's attacking force overwhelms a struggling St. Pauli side. Ancient wisdom reveals a clear path to three points for the hosts.

RB Leipzig is predicted to win against FC St. Pauli based on overwhelming odds and statistical evidence.

Form Analysis: RB Leipzig have won 4 of their last 5 matches (LWWWW), averaging 2.0 goals per game, while FC St. Pauli are winless in 5 (LLDLD) with only 0.6 goals per game and no clean sheets.

Key Factors: Leipzig sit 3rd with 62 points, 36 points ahead of 17th-placed St. Pauli. The home team's attack (77% vs 23%) and overall comparison (71.7% vs 28.3%) heavily favor Leipzig. St. Pauli are on a 2-loss streak and failed to score in 2 of last 5.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable home win. Leipzig's Champions League form and St. Pauli's relegation struggles make this a mismatch.

Win Probabilities: RB Leipzig: 67% · Draw: 23% · FC St. Pauli: 10%

Predicted Score: 2-0 (18.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 65% · Under 2.5: 35% · BTTS: 40%

H2H: RB Leipzig wins: 3 · Draws: 2 · FC St. Pauli wins: 3

Form (latest first): RB Leipzig: WWLWL · FC St. Pauli: WDWDL

  • C. Baumgartner vs St. Pauli defense: Leipzig's top scorer will test a leaky backline.
  • Y. Diomande vs St. Pauli midfield: Diomande's creativity could unlock the away defense.
  • Rômulo vs St. Pauli center-backs: Physical battle in the box.

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Bundesliga

Bundesliga

Germany15 · Upcoming Fixtures
BundesligaGermany
Eintracht Frankfurt
Oct 1618:30
1. FC Köln
12.5040%
X3.4529%
23.2331%
BundesligaGermany
Werder Bremen
Oct 1713:30
SC Paderborn 07
11.9651%
X3.4529%
25.0020%
BundesligaGermany
FC Schalke 04
Oct 1713:30
FSV Mainz 05
12.5040%
X3.2331%
23.4529%
BundesligaGermany
Hamburger SV
Oct 1713:30
VfB Stuttgart
14.5522%
X3.5728%
22.0050%
BundesligaGermany
Union Berlin
Oct 1713:30
Borussia Dortmund
15.2619%
X3.7027%
21.8554%
BundesligaGermany
SV Elversberg
Oct 1713:30
FC Augsburg
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
BundesligaGermany
Bayern München
Oct 1716:30
RB Leipzig
11.3574%
X5.5618%
212.508%
BundesligaGermany
Bayer Leverkusen
Oct 1813:30
SC Freiburg
11.9651%
X4.0025%
24.1724%
BundesligaGermany
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Oct 1815:30
1899 Hoffenheim
14.3523%
X3.5728%
22.0449%
BundesligaGermany
VfB Stuttgart
Oct 2318:30
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early projection
11.5465%
X5.5618%
25.8817%
BundesligaGermany
FSV Mainz 05
Oct 2413:30
Werder Bremen
Early projection
11.9252%
X4.5522%
23.8526%
BundesligaGermany
FC Augsburg
Oct 2413:30
Union Berlin
Early projection
12.0050%
X4.3523%
23.7027%
BundesligaGermany
RB Leipzig
Oct 2413:30
SV Elversberg
Early projection
12.0050%
X4.3523%
23.7027%
BundesligaGermany
SC Paderborn 07
Oct 2413:30
Hamburger SV
Early projection
12.2744%
X4.0025%
23.2331%
BundesligaGermany
1. FC Köln
Oct 2413:30
FC Schalke 04
Early projection
12.7836%
X3.5728%
22.7836%

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