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  1. Home
  2. Bundesliga
  3. RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin

Result • Bundesliga·RB Leipzig·Union Berlin

Bundesliga
Bundesliga
Apr 24, 2026
18:30
high Confidence
WINNER
RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

Home
Final Score
3-1
Predicted: 2-0
Final Score
3-1
Predicted: 2-0
Odds
11.42
X5.00
26.50
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
high Confidence
Union Berlin

Union Berlin

Away
Odds
11.42
X5.00
26.50
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Win Probabilities
60%
RB Leipzig
26%
Draw
14%
Union Berlin
Home1.4260%
Draw5.0026%
Away6.5014%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a red wave sweeping through the Red Bull Arena, as Leipzig's fire consumes Union's fading hopes. Ancient wisdom reveals a home victory written in the stars.

Our AI model analyzes this Bundesliga fixture between RB Leipzig and Union Berlin using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns RB Leipzig a 60% win probability, a 26% chance of a draw, and Union Berlin a 14% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-0. Both teams to score probability: 45%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 45%

Match Events

  1. Goal: M. Finkgrafe
    22'
    Goal: M. FinkgrafeRB Leipzig
  2. Goal: Romulo Cardoso
    25'
    Goal: Romulo CardosoRB Leipzig
  3. 31'
    Substitution: C. KlausUnion Berlin · Out: F. Ronnow
    Substitution: C. KlausOut: F. Ronnow
  4. Yellow Card: C. Baumgartner
    34'
    Yellow Card: C. BaumgartnerRB Leipzig
  5. 59'
    Substitution: I. AnsahUnion Berlin · Out: A. Ilic
    Substitution: I. AnsahOut: A. Ilic
  6. 60'
    Substitution: J. JuranovicUnion Berlin · Out: C. Trimmel
    Substitution: J. JuranovicOut: C. Trimmel
  7. 60'
    Substitution: A. KemleinUnion Berlin · Out: J. Haberer
    Substitution: A. KemleinOut: J. Haberer
  8. Goal: R. BakuAssist: Y. Diomande
    63'
    Goal: R. BakuRB Leipzig · Assist: Y. Diomande
  9. Substitution: C. HarderOut: A. Ouedraogo
    68'
    Substitution: C. HarderRB Leipzig · Out: A. Ouedraogo
  10. Substitution: B. GrudaOut: Romulo Cardoso
    68'
    Substitution: B. GrudaRB Leipzig · Out: Romulo Cardoso
  11. 78'
    Goal: D. DoekhiUnion Berlin · Assist: J. Juranovic
    Goal: D. DoekhiAssist: J. Juranovic
  12. Substitution: J. BakayokoOut: Y. Diomande
    79'
    Substitution: J. BakayokoRB Leipzig · Out: Y. Diomande
  13. Substitution: B. HenrichsOut: R. Baku
    79'
    Substitution: B. HenrichsRB Leipzig · Out: R. Baku
  14. 83'
    Substitution: L. BurcuUnion Berlin · Out: A. Schafer
    Substitution: L. BurcuOut: A. Schafer
  15. 84'
    Yellow Card: D. LeiteUnion Berlin
    Yellow Card: D. Leite
  16. Substitution: T. GomisOut: A. Nusa
    90'
    Substitution: T. GomisRB Leipzig · Out: A. Nusa
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1C. Baumgartner vs Union Berlin defense: Leipzig's top scorer will test Union's back three with his movement and finishing.
2Rômulo vs R. Khedira: Midfield battle where Rômulo's creativity meets Khedira's defensive discipline.
3Ilyas Ansah vs Leipzig defense: Union's main attacking threat must overcome Leipzig's solid defensive line.
Strengths · Weaknesses

RB Leipzig

  • Strong attack averaging 2.2 goals per game
  • Excellent defense conceding only 0.6 goals per game
  • Three defensive players doubtful (Orban, Klostermann, Finkgrafe)
  • Occasional lapses in concentration

Union Berlin

  • Set-piece threat from L. Querfeld
  • Compact defensive shape in 3-5-2
  • Poor form with 2 consecutive losses
  • Low scoring average of 0.8 goals per game

Combined Analysis

Low Agreement
Betora AI
60%
API-Football
50%
55%
RB Leipzig55387

Models disagree significantly. Suggests home win (55%) but proceed with caution.

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

RB Leipzig is predicted to win against Union Berlin based on overwhelming data from odds, form, and statistical models.

Form Analysis: RB Leipzig are on a 4-match winning streak with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, while Union Berlin have lost 2 consecutive matches, scoring only 0.8 goals per game and conceding 2.0. Leipzig's form rating is 75% vs Union's 25%.

Key Factors: (1) Leipzig's dominant home record and 27-point lead in standings; (2) Union's poor away form and defensive struggles; (3) Head-to-head shows Leipzig winning 3 of last 5, but Union has 5 wins overall—however recent form heavily favors Leipzig.

Conclusion: All indicators point to a comfortable home win for RB Leipzig, with Union Berlin unlikely to pose a serious threat.

Statistical ContextRB Leipzig

Winner : RB Leipzig

Team Comparison

AI Powered
RB LeipzigUnion Berlin
71%Strength28%
73%Attacking Potential27%
77%Defensive Potential23%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
62%H2H Strength38%
67%Goals H2H33%
71%Wins the Game28%
Head-to-head →Injuries · RB LeipzigInjuries · Union BerlinLive scores →

Statistical Context

RB Leipzig

WLLWW
  • WSep 13, 26H · Hamburger SV5-0
  • LSep 10, 26A · Como4-1
  • LSep 5, 26A · Werder Bremen3-1
  • WAug 29, 26H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3-0
  • WAug 22, 26A · Eintracht Trier0-6

Union Berlin

LLLDW
  • LSep 18, 26A · Bayern München7-0
  • LSep 11, 26H · FC Schalke 041-3
  • LSep 5, 26A · Bayer Leverkusen4-0
  • DAug 29, 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt3-3
  • WAug 23, 26A · Eintracht Braunschweig2-4

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
4Bayern München3+57WDW
5RB Leipzig3+66WLW
6SV Elversberg3+16LWW
15SC Paderborn 073-41LLD
16Union Berlin3-61LLD
17Borussia Mönchengladbach3-90LLL

Head to Head

3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
5
Union Berlin
  • Dec 12, 25Union Berlin – RB Leipzig3-1
  • Feb 1, 25Union Berlin – RB Leipzig0-0
  • Sep 14, 24RB Leipzig – Union Berlin0-0
  • Feb 4, 24RB Leipzig – Union Berlin2-0
  • Sep 3, 23Union Berlin – RB Leipzig0-3

Season Statistics — 2026

RB LeipzigUnion Berlin
Played33
Goals Scored94
Goals Conceded310
Avg Scored3.01.3
Avg Conceded1.03.3
Clean Sheets20

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a red wave sweeping through the Red Bull Arena, as Leipzig's fire consumes Union's fading hopes. Ancient wisdom reveals a home victory written in the stars.

RB Leipzig is predicted to win against Union Berlin based on overwhelming data from odds, form, and statistical models.

Form Analysis: RB Leipzig are on a 4-match winning streak with an average of 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, while Union Berlin have lost 2 consecutive matches, scoring only 0.8 goals per game and conceding 2.0. Leipzig's form rating is 75% vs Union's 25%.

Key Factors: (1) Leipzig's dominant home record and 27-point lead in standings; (2) Union's poor away form and defensive struggles; (3) Head-to-head shows Leipzig winning 3 of last 5, but Union has 5 wins overall—however recent form heavily favors Leipzig.

Conclusion: All indicators point to a comfortable home win for RB Leipzig, with Union Berlin unlikely to pose a serious threat.

Win Probabilities: RB Leipzig: 60% · Draw: 26% · Union Berlin: 14%

Predicted Score: 2-0 (18.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 65% · Under 2.5: 35% · BTTS: 45%

H2H: RB Leipzig wins: 3 · Draws: 2 · Union Berlin wins: 5

Form (latest first): RB Leipzig: WLLWW · Union Berlin: LLLDW

  • C. Baumgartner vs Union Berlin defense: Leipzig's top scorer will test Union's back three with his movement and finishing.
  • Rômulo vs R. Khedira: Midfield battle where Rômulo's creativity meets Khedira's defensive discipline.
  • Ilyas Ansah vs Leipzig defense: Union's main attacking threat must overcome Leipzig's solid defensive line.

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Bundesliga

Bundesliga

Germany15 · Upcoming Fixtures
BundesligaGermany
Werder Bremen
Sep 1913:30
FC Augsburg
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
BundesligaGermany
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sep 1913:30
FSV Mainz 05
13.7027%
X3.2331%
22.3842%
BundesligaGermany
Eintracht Frankfurt
Sep 1913:30
SC Freiburg
12.3842%
X3.3330%
23.5728%
BundesligaGermany
Hamburger SV
Sep 1913:30
1. FC Köln
12.9434%
X3.8526%
22.5040%
BundesligaGermany
VfB Stuttgart
Sep 1916:30
Borussia Dortmund
13.4529%
X3.2331%
22.5040%
BundesligaGermany
Bayer Leverkusen
Sep 2013:30
RB Leipzig
12.6338%
X3.4529%
23.0333%
BundesligaGermany
FC Schalke 04
Sep 2015:30
SV Elversberg
12.2245%
X3.3330%
24.0025%
BundesligaGermany
SC Paderborn 07
Sep 2017:30
1899 Hoffenheim
15.2619%
X3.5728%
21.8953%
BundesligaGermany
Borussia Dortmund
Oct 918:30
Werder Bremen
Early projection
11.3276%
X7.1414%
210.0010%
BundesligaGermany
FSV Mainz 05
Oct 1013:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Early projection
13.1332%
X3.8526%
22.3842%
BundesligaGermany
1899 Hoffenheim
Oct 1013:30
Hamburger SV
Early projection
11.6461%
X5.2619%
25.0020%
BundesligaGermany
FC Augsburg
Oct 1013:30
Bayern München
Early projection
16.6715%
X6.2516%
21.4569%
BundesligaGermany
Union Berlin
Oct 1013:30
SV Elversberg
Early projection
13.8526%
X4.5522%
21.9252%
BundesligaGermany
SC Paderborn 07
Oct 1013:30
VfB Stuttgart
Early projection
13.5728%
X4.5522%
22.0050%
BundesligaGermany
RB Leipzig
Oct 1016:30
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early projection
11.6461%
X5.2619%
25.0020%

Betting Tips

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