Serie A · 2026/27
Serie A Matchday 5 predictions
10 fixtures from September 18 to September 20. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Saturday, September 19 · 16:00
Every fixture this round
Friday, September 18
1X2
Saturday, September 19
1X2
Serie A Matchday 5 runs from September 18 to September 20 with 10 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is AC Milan - Lecce: AC Milan to win at 76%. The tightest match is Monza - Sassuolo, where no outcome clears 36%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Monza 2–1 Sassuolo, September 18: the model's pick was Sassuolo to win (36%) and it missed.
- Udinese 0–1 Cagliari, September 19: the model's pick was Udinese to win (41%) and it missed.
- Bologna 1–1 Torino, September 19: the model's pick was Bologna to win (40%) and it missed.
- AS Roma 2–2 Inter, September 19: the model's pick was Inter to win (40%) and it missed.
- Venezia 0–2 Lazio, September 19: the model's pick was Lazio to win (46%) and it came in.
- Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli, September 20: the model's pick was Napoli to win (43%) and it missed.
- Frosinone 2–0 Como, September 20: the model's pick was Como to win (55%) and it missed.
- Parma 2–1 Genoa, September 20: the model's pick was Genoa to win (37%) and it missed.
- Juventus 2–0 Atalanta, September 20: the model's pick was Juventus to win (51%) and it came in.
- AC Milan 3–0 Lecce, September 20: the model's pick was AC Milan to win (76%) and it came in.
Matchday 5 FAQ
When is Serie A Matchday 5 played?
From September 18 to September 20. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 5?
AC Milan - Lecce: AC Milan to win at 76% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.