Serie A · 2026/27
Serie A Matchday 4 predictions
10 fixtures from September 11 to September 14. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Saturday, September 12 · 16:00
Every fixture this round
Friday, September 11
1X2
Saturday, September 12
1X2
Sunday, September 13
1X2
Serie A Matchday 4 runs from September 11 to September 14 with 10 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Como - Parma: Como to win at 75%. The tightest match is Lazio - AC Milan, where no outcome clears 36%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Venezia 2–4 Fiorentina, September 11: the model's pick was Fiorentina to win (39%) and it came in.
- Genoa 1–1 Frosinone, September 12: the model's pick was Genoa to win (37%) and it missed.
- Lazio 2–2 AC Milan, September 12: the model's pick was AC Milan to win (36%) and it missed.
- Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari, September 12: the model's pick was Atalanta to win (45%) and it missed.
- Lecce 3–2 Monza, September 13: the model's pick was Lecce to win (40%) and it came in.
- Napoli 1–0 Bologna, September 13: the model's pick was Napoli to win (51%) and it came in.
- Sassuolo 3–2 Juventus, September 13: the model's pick was Juventus to win (58%) and it missed.
- Torino 0–2 AS Roma, September 14: the model's pick was AS Roma to win (61%) and it came in.
- Como 2–1 Parma, September 14: the model's pick was Como to win (75%) and it came in.
- Inter 5–3 Udinese, September 14: the model's pick was Inter to win (71%) and it came in.
Matchday 4 FAQ
When is Serie A Matchday 4 played?
From September 11 to September 14. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 4?
Como - Parma: Como to win at 75% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.