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Matches
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Pricing
  1. Home
  2. Championship
  3. Derby vs Birmingham

Derby vs Birmingham

Prediction • Championship·Derby·Birmingham

Championship
Championship
Sep 12, 2026
11:30
Early projection · Odds pending
PREDICTED WINNER
Derby

Derby

Home
VS
VS
Stadium
Pride Park
Early projection · Odds pending
Birmingham

Birmingham

Away
Stadium
Pride Park
Win Probabilities
45%
Derby
24%
Draw
31%
Birmingham
Home2.2245%
Draw4.1724%
Away3.2331%

Oracle's Vision

Early projection
“

Birmingham are the clear favourites, backed by superior form and a stronger overall statistical profile. Derby's injury crisis and poor recent results make an away win the most likely outcome, though their strong head-to-head record offers a glimmer of hope.

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Momentum

Recent Matches

Team Momentum

Last 5
0.0Derby
/10
4.0Birmingham
Derby
FormLatest first
LDLLL
Win Rate0%
Birmingham
FormLatest first
WLDDW
Win Rate40%
Momentum AdvantageBirmingham+4.0

Featured Players

Compare the key players from each team

Key Battle

M
Joe Ward
7.3

Joe Ward

Derby

VS
Demarai Gray
7.9

Demarai Gray

Birmingham

18ATT64
100TEC100
70TAC40
31DEF5
70CRE8

Team Streaks

Statistical trends from recent matches

Team Streaks

Last 10 Matches
Scoring
7/10
Over 2.5 Goals
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1.5
Avg Scored
2.0
Defense
2/10
Clean Sheets
3/10
1.3
Avg Conceded
1.2
Match Flow
6/10
Scored First
6/10
1.9
Avg Cards
2.0
6.0
Avg Corners
5.4

Score Predictions

Most Likely Score

Confidence Breakdown

Weather Impact

Match Weather

14°
Light rain shower
Wind
25 km/h
Humidity
75%
Rain
0.1 mm
Tactical Impact

Light rain - slightly wet pitch may affect passing accuracy

Derby
Home

Derby

Form
LDL
Latest first
19
Pos
50
Pts
-1
Goal Diff

Season Performance(2026 · 2 matches)

Clean Sheets00%
Goal Diff-1
  • Strong head-to-head record against Birmingham (5 wins in last 5 meetings)
  • Home advantage at Pride Park
  • Physical style suited to rainy conditions
P. Agyemang
Achilles Injury
Injured
R. Brewster
Knee Injury
Injured
D. Murkin
Hamstring Injury
Injured
M. Clarke
Calf Injury
Injured
S. Szmodics
Thigh Injury
Injured
C. Blackett-Taylor
Muscle Injury
Injured

Head to Head

Last 10
Derby
Derby
5Wins
3
Draws
Birmingham
2Wins
Birmingham
50%30%20%

Recent Matches

Last 10
Mar212026
DerbyDerby
1-0
Win
BirminghamBirmingham
Dec262025
BirminghamBirmingham
1-1
Draw
DerbyDerby
Jan302022
DerbyDerby
2-2
Draw
BirminghamBirmingham
Sep102021
BirminghamBirmingham
2-0
Loss
DerbyDerby
Apr242021
DerbyDerby
1-2
Loss
BirminghamBirmingham
Dec292020
BirminghamBirmingham
0-4
Win
DerbyDerby
Jul222020
BirminghamBirmingham
1-3
Win
DerbyDerby
Sep282019
DerbyDerby
3-2
Win
BirminghamBirmingham
Apr192019
BirminghamBirmingham
2-2
Draw
DerbyDerby
Nov32018
DerbyDerby
3-1
Win
BirminghamBirmingham

Past Predictions

100%1/1 correct

Derby 1 - 0 Birmingham

Mar 21, 2026

36% / 28% / 36%

Derby4-2-3-1vs4-2-3-1BirminghamPredicted Lineup · high

Tactical Matchup: Tactical mirror. Individual brilliance decides.

BirminghamBirmingham4-2-3-1
DerbyDerby4-2-3-1
BirminghamBenchBirmingham7
DerbyBenchDerby7

Injury Report

Current team availability status

Data Accuracy: Player availability is highly accurate (~90%), but specific injury diagnoses and recovery timelines may not reflect the latest medical updates (~70% accuracy).

Derby

6Out

6 key players

Birmingham

7Out

7 key players

Derby

Team

Derby

Players Out

6(6 key)
P. Agyemang

P. Agyemang

MODERATE
Injury:Achilles Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

R. Brewster

R. Brewster

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

D. Murkin

D. Murkin

MODERATE
Injury:Hamstring Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

M. Clarke

M. Clarke

MODERATE
Injury:Calf Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

S. Szmodics

S. Szmodics

MODERATE
Injury:Thigh Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

C. Blackett-Taylor

C. Blackett-Taylor

MODERATE
Injury:Muscle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

Birmingham

Team

Birmingham

Players Out

7(7 key)
M. Leonard

M. Leonard

MODERATE
Injury:Achilles Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

A. Priske

A. Priske

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

L. Buchanan

L. Buchanan

MODERATE
Injury:Knee Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

3-9 months

E. Laird

E. Laird

MODERATE
Injury:Muscle Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-6 weeks

M. Ducksch

M. Ducksch

MODERATE
Injury:Calf Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

K. Fujimoto

K. Fujimoto

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

T. Gardner-Hickman

T. Gardner-Hickman

MODERATE
Injury:Injury

Est. Recovery (Typical range)

2-4 weeks

Championship

League Statistics

Championship • Standings & Top Performers

Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Charlton
Charlton
330052+39
2
Wolves
Wolves
321094+57
3
Swansea
Swansea
321051+47
4
QPR
QPR
321052+37
5
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
320164+26
6
West Brom
West Brom
320165+16
7
Millwall
Millwall
320165+16
8
Birmingham
BirminghamAway
312043+15
9
Watford
Watford
312043+15
10
Blackburn
Blackburn
31115504
11
Bolton
Bolton
31112204
12
Bristol City
Bristol City
311145-14
13
Cardiff
Cardiff
30305503
14
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
30302203
15
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
310256-13
16
Norwich
Norwich
310256-13
17
Lincoln
Lincoln
310235-23
18
Southampton
Southampton
320194+52
19
West Ham
West Ham
302145-12
20
Wrexham
Wrexham
302134-12
21
Derby
DerbyHome
301237-41
22
Burnley
Burnley
301249-51
23
Preston
Preston
300326-40
24
Stoke City
Stoke City
300339-60
Champions League
Relegation
HomeAway

Oracle's Vision

Early projection

Derby

Odds pending

Win Probabilities

45%Derby
24%Draw
31%Birmingham

Key Markets

Predicted ScoreBTTSOver 2.5
KickoffSat, Sep 12 · 11:30
StadiumPride Park
League StatsChampionship

Statistical Context

Derby

LDLLL
  • LAug 29, 26H · Swansea0-3
  • DAug 22, 26H · Cardiff2-2
  • LAug 15, 26A · Charlton2-1
  • LAug 8, 26H · Lincoln1-2
  • LMay 2, 26H · Sheffield Utd1-2

Birmingham

WLDDW
  • WAug 28, 26A · Wrexham1-2
  • LAug 25, 26H · Brentford1-6
  • DAug 22, 26H · Bristol City2-2
  • DAug 15, 26A · Sheffield Utd0-0
  • WAug 8, 26A · Swansea0-1

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
7Millwall3+16LWW
8Birmingham3+15WDD
9Watford3+15DDW
20Wrexham3-12LDD
21Derby3-41LDL
22Burnley3-51LLD

Head to Head

5
Derby
3
Draws
2
Birmingham
  • Mar 21, 26Derby – Birmingham1-0
  • Dec 26, 25Birmingham – Derby1-1
  • Jan 30, 22Derby – Birmingham2-2
  • Sep 10, 21Birmingham – Derby2-0
  • Apr 24, 21Derby – Birmingham1-2

Season Statistics — 2026

DerbyBirmingham
Played23
Goals Scored34
Goals Conceded43
Avg Scored1.51.3
Avg Conceded2.01.0
Clean Sheets01

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

DerbyBirmingham
Over 2.5 Goals7/107/10
Both Teams Scored7/106/10
Clean Sheets2/103/10

Predicted Line-ups & Formations

Predicted XI

Derby

Formation 4-2-3-1
  1. 31GJ. Vickers
  2. 3DC. Forsyth
  3. 22DM. Johnston
  4. 6DS. Langås
  5. 24DR. Nyambe
  6. 8MB. Clark
  7. 10MOwen Eames
  8. 29MO. Fraulo
  9. 20MA. Mowatt
  10. 27ML. Travis
  11. 15AL. Salvesen

Coach: J. Eustace

Birmingham

Formation 4-2-3-1
  1. 21GR. Allsop
  2. 20DA. Cochrane
  3. 23DD. Fry
  4. 4DC. Klarer
  5. 25DK. Lund
  6. 24MT. Iwata
  7. 8MPaik Seung-Ho
  8. 14MJ. Solis
  9. 10MD. Gray
  10. 16MP. Roberts
  11. 28AJ. Stansfield

Coach: H. Redknapp

Derby vs Birmingham — Expert Prediction & Analysis

Birmingham are the clear favourites, backed by superior form and a stronger overall statistical profile. Derby's injury crisis and poor recent results make an away win the most likely outcome, though their strong head-to-head record offers a glimmer of hope.

Birmingham enter this Championship clash as the clear favourites, backed by superior form, a stronger overall statistical profile, and a higher league position. The API-Football model heavily favours …

Win Probabilities: Derby: 45% · Draw: 24% · Birmingham: 31%

H2H: Derby wins: 5 · Draws: 3 · Birmingham wins: 2

Form (latest first): Derby: LDLLL · Birmingham: WLDDW

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Championship

Championship

England15 · Upcoming Fixtures
ChampionshipEngland
West Ham
Sep 118:45
Wolves
12.1746%
X3.4529%
24.0025%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Preston
Sep 118:45
Bristol City
12.9434%
X3.5728%
22.6338%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Sheffield Utd
Sep 118:45
Bolton
11.5664%
X4.3523%
27.6913%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Swansea
Sep 118:45
Watford
12.1746%
X3.4529%
24.0025%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Portsmouth
Sep 118:45
Derby
12.9434%
X3.4529%
22.7037%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Lincoln
Sep 118:45
Blackburn
12.9434%
X3.7027%
22.5639%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Birmingham
Sep 119:00
Southampton
12.5040%
X3.5728%
23.1332%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Stoke City
Sep 119:00
Norwich
13.2331%
X3.4529%
22.5040%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Millwall
Sep 218:45
Wrexham
12.2245%
X3.3330%
24.0025%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
West Brom
Sep 218:45
Charlton
12.1746%
X3.3330%
24.1724%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
QPR
Sep 218:45
Cardiff
11.9651%
X3.7027%
24.5522%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Burnley
Sep 219:00
Middlesbrough
12.5639%
X3.7027%
22.9434%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Preston
Sep 511:30
Blackburn
Early projection
12.1746%
X4.1724%
23.3330%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Stoke City
Sep 511:30
Charlton
Early projection
12.3842%
X4.0025%
23.0333%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access
ChampionshipEngland
Lincoln
Sep 511:30
Southampton
Early projection
13.3330%
X4.1724%
22.1746%
View Full AnalysisGet Premium Access