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  1. Home
  2. Bundesliga
  3. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

Result • Bundesliga·FSV Mainz 05·Bayern München

Bundesliga
Bundesliga
Apr 25, 2026
13:30
high Confidence
FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05

Home
Final Score
3-4
Predicted: 1-3
Final Score
3-4
Predicted: 1-3
Odds
13.90
X4.33
21.60
Stadium
Mewa Arena
high Confidence
WINNER
Bayern München

Bayern München

Away
Odds
13.90
X4.33
21.60
Stadium
Mewa Arena
Win Probabilities
19%
FSV Mainz 05
27%
Draw
54%
Bayern München
Home3.9019%
Draw4.3327%
Away1.6054%

Oracle's Vision

high Confidence
“

The Oracle sees a crimson tide sweeping through Mewa Arena, as Bayern's relentless march continues. Mainz's fortress crumbles under the weight of Kane's golden touch.

Our AI model analyzes this Bundesliga fixture between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayern München using historical performance data, current form, head-to-head records, and tactical indicators. The model assigns FSV Mainz 05 a 19% win probability, a 27% chance of a draw, and Bayern München a 54% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-3. Both teams to score probability: 55%. This prediction is rated as high confidence based on the quality and consistency of available data points.

BTTS: 55%

Match Events

  1. Goal: D. KohrAssist: K. Sano
    15'
    Goal: D. KohrFSV Mainz 05 · Assist: K. Sano
  2. Yellow Card: D. Kohr
    20'
    Yellow Card: D. KohrFSV Mainz 05
  3. Goal: P. Nebel
    29'
    Goal: P. NebelFSV Mainz 05
  4. 33'
    Yellow Card: K. LaimerBayern München
    Yellow Card: K. Laimer
  5. Goal: S. Becker
    45+2'
    Goal: S. BeckerFSV Mainz 05
  6. 46'
    Substitution: H. KaneBayern München · Out: A. Pavlovic
    Substitution: H. KaneOut: A. Pavlovic
  7. 46'
    Substitution: M. OliseBayern München · Out: L. Diaz
    Substitution: M. OliseOut: L. Diaz
  8. 53'
    Goal: N. JacksonBayern München · Assist: K. Laimer
    Goal: N. JacksonAssist: K. Laimer
  9. 57'
    Substitution: J. StanisicBayern München · Out: A. Davies
    Substitution: J. StanisicOut: A. Davies
  10. 57'
    Substitution: J. MusialaBayern München · Out: R. Guerreiro
    Substitution: J. MusialaOut: R. Guerreiro
  11. Substitution: A. SiebOut: S. Becker
    71'
    Substitution: A. SiebFSV Mainz 05 · Out: S. Becker
  12. 73'
    Goal: M. OliseBayern München · Assist: K. Laimer
    Goal: M. OliseAssist: K. Laimer
  13. 77'
    Substitution: J. TahBayern München · Out: B. Ndiaye
    Substitution: J. TahOut: B. Ndiaye
  14. Substitution: L. MaloneyOut: N. Amiri
    79'
    Substitution: L. MaloneyFSV Mainz 05 · Out: N. Amiri
  15. Substitution: A. CaciOut: S. Widmer
    80'
    Substitution: A. CaciFSV Mainz 05 · Out: S. Widmer
  16. 80'
    Goal: J. MusialaBayern München
    Goal: J. Musiala
  17. 83'
    Goal: H. KaneBayern München
    Goal: H. Kane
  18. Substitution: N. WeiperOut: D. Kohr
    86'
    Substitution: N. WeiperFSV Mainz 05 · Out: D. Kohr
  19. Substitution: W. BovingOut: P. Nebel
    87'
    Substitution: W. BovingFSV Mainz 05 · Out: P. Nebel
  20. 90+8'
    Yellow Card: M. OliseBayern München
    Yellow Card: M. Olise
Share Prediction

AI Analysis & Prediction Review

Analysis & Key Battles

AI Powered
Key Player Battles
1N. Amiri vs J. Kimmich: Amiri's creativity vs Kimmich's control in midfield
2D. Kohr vs H. Kane: Kohr's physicality vs Kane's movement and finishing
3P. Nebel vs A. Davies: Nebel's pace vs Davies' overlapping runs
Strengths · Weaknesses

FSV Mainz 05

  • Defensive organization (56% comparison)
  • Set pieces
  • Low attacking output (29% comparison)
  • Inconsistent form

Bayern München

  • Elite attack (71% comparison)
  • Momentum (5 wins)
  • Defensive lapses (44% comparison)
  • Potential complacency

Combined Analysis

Medium Agreement
Betora AI
54%
API-Football
45%
50%
Bayern München153650

Moderate agreement on away win (50%).

AI AnalysisHigh Confidence

Bayern München is the clear favorite to win this Bundesliga clash against FSV Mainz 05, based on overwhelming evidence from odds, form, and statistical comparisons.

Form Analysis: Bayern München is on a 5-match winning streak, averaging 3.4 goals per game, while Mainz has been inconsistent with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5. Bayern's attack (71% comparison) dwarfs Mainz's defense (56%), and their overall strength (67.2%) is double Mainz's (32.8%).

Key Factors: 1) Bayern's superior attack led by Harry Kane (14 goals) against Mainz's leaky defense (1.4 goals conceded per game). 2) Head-to-head dominance: Bayern has won 6 of the last 10 meetings. 3) Mainz has 3 doubtful players, while Bayern only has 1, giving them a squad depth advantage.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable Bayern victory. Mainz's home advantage (0.55 rating) is insufficient to offset Bayern's class and momentum.

Statistical ContextBayern München

Winner : Bayern München

Team Comparison

AI Powered
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
32%Strength67%
29%Attacking Potential71%
56%Defensive Potential44%
50%Poisson Distribution50%
29%H2H Strength71%
22%Goals H2H78%
32%Wins the Game67%
Head-to-head →Injuries · FSV Mainz 05Injuries · Bayern München

Statistical Context

FSV Mainz 05

LWDWW
  • LSep 12, 26H · Eintracht Frankfurt1-3
  • WSep 6, 26A · Hamburger SV0-5
  • DAug 29, 26H · SC Paderborn 070-0
  • WAug 23, 26A · Krieschow0-9
  • WMay 16, 26A · 1. FC Heidenheim0-2

Bayern München

WWDWW
  • WSep 13, 26A · SV Elversberg1-2
  • WSep 10, 26H · Bodo/Glimt5-0
  • DSep 5, 26A · FC Schalke 040-0
  • WSep 2, 26A · VfL Osnabrück1-4
  • WAug 28, 26H · VfB Stuttgart5-1

Standings

PosPGDPtsForm
3FC Augsburg3+67DWW
4Bayern München3+57WDW
5RB Leipzig3+66WLW
6SV Elversberg3+16LWW
7Bayer Leverkusen3+34DWL
8FSV Mainz 053+34LWD
9Eintracht Frankfurt3-14WLD

Head to Head

3
FSV Mainz 05
1
Draws
6
Bayern München
  • Dec 14, 25Bayern München – FSV Mainz 052-2
  • Apr 26, 25Bayern München – FSV Mainz 053-0
  • Dec 14, 24FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern München2-1
  • Oct 30, 24FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern München0-4
  • Mar 9, 24Bayern Munich – FSV Mainz 058-1

Season Statistics — 2026

FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
Played22
Goals Scored55
Goals Conceded01
Avg Scored2.52.5
Avg Conceded0.00.5
Clean Sheets21

Team Streaks — Last 10 Matches

FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
Over 2.5 Goals3/1010/10
Both Teams Scored4/107/10
Clean Sheets1/103/10

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München — Match Analysis

The Oracle sees a crimson tide sweeping through Mewa Arena, as Bayern's relentless march continues. Mainz's fortress crumbles under the weight of Kane's golden touch.

Bayern München is the clear favorite to win this Bundesliga clash against FSV Mainz 05, based on overwhelming evidence from odds, form, and statistical comparisons.

Form Analysis: Bayern München is on a 5-match winning streak, averaging 3.4 goals per game, while Mainz has been inconsistent with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5. Bayern's attack (71% comparison) dwarfs Mainz's defense (56%), and their overall strength (67.2%) is double Mainz's (32.8%).

Key Factors: 1) Bayern's superior attack led by Harry Kane (14 goals) against Mainz's leaky defense (1.4 goals conceded per game). 2) Head-to-head dominance: Bayern has won 6 of the last 10 meetings. 3) Mainz has 3 doubtful players, while Bayern only has 1, giving them a squad depth advantage.

Conclusion: All data points to a comfortable Bayern victory. Mainz's home advantage (0.55 rating) is insufficient to offset Bayern's class and momentum.

Win Probabilities: FSV Mainz 05: 19% · Draw: 27% · Bayern München: 54%

Predicted Score: 1-3 (12.0% chance)

Over 2.5: 72% · Under 2.5: 28% · BTTS: 55%

H2H: FSV Mainz 05 wins: 3 · Draws: 1 · Bayern München wins: 6

Form (latest first): FSV Mainz 05: LWDWW · Bayern München: WWDWW

  • N. Amiri vs J. Kimmich: Amiri's creativity vs Kimmich's control in midfield
  • D. Kohr vs H. Kane: Kohr's physicality vs Kane's movement and finishing
  • P. Nebel vs A. Davies: Nebel's pace vs Davies' overlapping runs

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Bundesliga

Bundesliga

Germany15 · Upcoming Fixtures
BundesligaGermany
Bayern München
Sep 1818:30
Union Berlin
11.1885%
X8.3312%
233.333%
BundesligaGermany
Werder Bremen
Sep 1913:30
FC Augsburg
12.5040%
X3.8526%
22.9434%
BundesligaGermany
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sep 1913:30
FSV Mainz 05
13.7027%
X3.2331%
22.3842%
BundesligaGermany
Eintracht Frankfurt
Sep 1913:30
SC Freiburg
12.3842%
X3.3330%
23.5728%
BundesligaGermany
Hamburger SV
Sep 1913:30
1. FC Köln
12.9434%
X3.8526%
22.5040%
BundesligaGermany
VfB Stuttgart
Sep 1916:30
Borussia Dortmund
13.4529%
X3.2331%
22.5040%
BundesligaGermany
Bayer Leverkusen
Sep 2013:30
RB Leipzig
12.6338%
X3.4529%
23.0333%
BundesligaGermany
FC Schalke 04
Sep 2015:30
SV Elversberg
12.2245%
X3.3330%
24.0025%
BundesligaGermany
SC Paderborn 07
Sep 2017:30
1899 Hoffenheim
15.2619%
X3.5728%
21.8953%
BundesligaGermany
Borussia Dortmund
Oct 918:30
Werder Bremen
Early projection
11.3276%
X7.1414%
210.0010%
BundesligaGermany
FSV Mainz 05
Oct 1013:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Early projection
13.1332%
X3.8526%
22.3842%
BundesligaGermany
1899 Hoffenheim
Oct 1013:30
Hamburger SV
Early projection
11.6461%
X5.2619%
25.0020%
BundesligaGermany
FC Augsburg
Oct 1013:30
Bayern München
Early projection
16.6715%
X6.2516%
21.4569%
BundesligaGermany
Union Berlin
Oct 1013:30
SV Elversberg
Early projection
13.8526%
X4.5522%
21.9252%
BundesligaGermany
SC Paderborn 07
Oct 1013:30
VfB Stuttgart
Early projection
13.5728%
X4.5522%
22.0050%

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