Premier League · 2026/27
Premier League Matchday 4 predictions
10 fixtures from September 12 to September 14. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Saturday, September 12 · 14:00
Every fixture this round
Saturday, September 12
1X2
Sunday, September 13
1X2
Monday, September 14
1X2
Premier League Matchday 4 runs from September 12 to September 14 with 10 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Chelsea - Hull City: Chelsea to win at 80%. The tightest match is Bournemouth - Brentford, where no outcome clears 40%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford, September 12: the model's pick was Bournemouth to win (40%) and it missed.
- Liverpool 0–0 Fulham, September 12: the model's pick was Liverpool to win (64%) and it missed.
- Chelsea 2–2 Hull City, September 12: the model's pick was Chelsea to win (80%) and it missed.
- Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich, September 12: the model's pick was Crystal Palace to win (51%) and it missed.
- Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest, September 12: the model's pick was Aston Villa to win (40%) and it missed.
- Tottenham 0–0 Everton, September 12: the model's pick was Tottenham to win (41%) and it missed.
- Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal, September 12: the model's pick was Arsenal to win (63%) and it came in.
- Coventry 0–5 Brighton, September 13: the model's pick was Brighton to win (51%) and it came in.
- Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City, September 13: the model's pick was Manchester City to win (44%) and it came in.
- Leeds 4–1 Newcastle, September 14: the model's pick was Leeds to win (40%) and it came in.
Matchday 4 FAQ
When is Premier League Matchday 4 played?
From September 12 to September 14. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 4?
Chelsea - Hull City: Chelsea to win at 80% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.