Premier League · 2026/27
Premier League Matchday 5 predictions
10 fixtures from September 18 to September 20. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Saturday, September 19 · 14:00
Every fixture this round
Friday, September 18
1X2
Saturday, September 19
1X2
Premier League Matchday 5 runs from September 18 to September 20 with 10 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Manchester City - Sunderland: Manchester City to win at 71%. The tightest match is Brentford - Chelsea, where no outcome clears 40%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Brentford 3–0 Chelsea, September 18: the model's pick was Chelsea to win (40%) and it missed.
- Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa, September 19: the model's pick was Tottenham to win (41%) and it missed.
- Newcastle 2–1 Hull City, September 19: the model's pick was Newcastle to win (53%) and it came in.
- Everton 1–0 Ipswich, September 19: the model's pick was Everton to win (52%) and it came in.
- Brighton 3–0 Arsenal, September 19: the model's pick was Arsenal to win (57%) and it missed.
- Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry, September 19: the model's pick was Nottingham Forest to win (60%) and it missed.
- Manchester City 5–3 Sunderland, September 20: the model's pick was Manchester City to win (71%) and it came in.
- Leeds 0–0 Crystal Palace, September 20: the model's pick was Leeds to win (54%) and it missed.
- Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool, September 20: the model's pick was Liverpool to win (44%) and it came in.
- Fulham 1–1 Manchester United, September 20: the model's pick was Manchester United to win (48%) and it missed.
Matchday 5 FAQ
When is Premier League Matchday 5 played?
From September 18 to September 20. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 5?
Manchester City - Sunderland: Manchester City to win at 71% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.