Bundesliga · 2026/27
Bundesliga Matchday 5 predictions
9 fixtures from October 9 to October 11. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Friday, October 9 · 18:30
Every fixture this round
Friday, October 9
1X2Saturday, October 10
1X2
Bundesliga Matchday 5 runs from October 9 to October 11 with 9 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is FC Augsburg - Bayern München: Bayern München to win at 81%. The tightest match is Union Berlin - SV Elversberg, where no outcome clears 38%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen, October 9: the model's pick was Borussia Dortmund to win (68%) and it missed.
- FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen, October 10: the model's pick was Bayer Leverkusen to win (42%) and it came in.
- 1899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV, October 10: the model's pick was 1899 Hoffenheim to win (64%) and it missed.
- FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern München, October 10: the model's pick was Bayern München to win (81%) and it missed.
- Union Berlin 1–0 SV Elversberg, October 10: the model's pick was Union Berlin to win (38%) and it came in.
- SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart, October 10: the model's pick was VfB Stuttgart to win (62%) and it came in.
- RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt, October 10: the model's pick was RB Leipzig to win (61%) and it came in.
- 1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach, October 11: the model's pick was 1. FC Köln to win (49%) and it came in.
- SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04, October 11: the model's pick was SC Freiburg to win (55%) and it came in.
Matchday 5 FAQ
When is Bundesliga Matchday 5 played?
From October 9 to October 11. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 5?
FC Augsburg - Bayern München: Bayern München to win at 81% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.