NPFL · 2026/27
NPFL Matchday 5 predictions
10 fixtures from September 23 to September 24. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Wednesday, September 23 · 15:00
Every fixture this round
Wednesday, September 23
1X2- 2–0
Barau FC
Abia Warriors66%22%12%✓ Hit - 2–1
Bendel Insurance
Ikorodu City43%25%32%✓ Hit - 2–2
Doma United
Plateau United54%21%25%✗ Miss - 2–3
Enyimba
Sporting Lagos51%26%23%✗ Miss - 1–1
Inter Lagos
Kano Pillars27%28%45%✗ Miss - 2–1
Kwara United
Nasarawa United48%23%29%✓ Hit - 0–0
Niger Tornadoes
Warri Wolves67%22%11%✗ Miss - 1–0
Enugu Rangers
Ranchers Bees69%20%11%✓ Hit - 2–0
Shooting Stars
Katsina United64%22%14%✓ Hit
Thursday, September 24
1X2
NPFL Matchday 5 runs from September 23 to September 24 with 10 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Rivers United - Kun Khalifat FC: Rivers United to win at 80%. The tightest match is Bendel Insurance - Ikorodu City, where no outcome clears 43%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Barau FC 2–0 Abia Warriors, September 23: the model's pick was Barau FC to win (66%) and it came in.
- Bendel Insurance 2–1 Ikorodu City, September 23: the model's pick was Bendel Insurance to win (43%) and it came in.
- Doma United 2–2 Plateau United, September 23: the model's pick was Doma United to win (54%) and it missed.
- Enyimba 2–3 Sporting Lagos, September 23: the model's pick was Enyimba to win (51%) and it missed.
- Inter Lagos 1–1 Kano Pillars, September 23: the model's pick was Kano Pillars to win (45%) and it missed.
- Kwara United 2–1 Nasarawa United, September 23: the model's pick was Kwara United to win (48%) and it came in.
- Niger Tornadoes 0–0 Warri Wolves, September 23: the model's pick was Niger Tornadoes to win (67%) and it missed.
- Enugu Rangers 1–0 Ranchers Bees, September 23: the model's pick was Enugu Rangers to win (69%) and it came in.
- Shooting Stars 2–0 Katsina United, September 23: the model's pick was Shooting Stars to win (64%) and it came in.
- Rivers United 5–0 Kun Khalifat FC, September 24: the model's pick was Rivers United to win (80%) and it came in.
Matchday 5 FAQ
When is NPFL Matchday 5 played?
From September 23 to September 24. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 5?
Rivers United - Kun Khalifat FC: Rivers United to win at 80% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.