Who Will Win NPFL?
2,000 season simulations · 380 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the NPFL 2027/28 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Doma United wins NPFL in 75.9% of 2,000 season simulations.
Barau FC — 14.4% title chance.
Inter Lagos goes down in 88.8% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Doma United | 3 | 9 | 75.9% | 98.9% | <0.1% | 80 |
| 2 |  Barau FC | 3 | 7 | 14.4% | 79.7% | <0.1% | 70 |
| 3 |  Bendel Insurance | 3 | 6 | 2.8% | 46% | <0.1% | 64 |
| 4 |  Rivers United | 1 | 3 | 2.4% | 40% | 0.2% | 62 |
| 5 |  Shooting Stars | 1 | 3 | 2% | 35% | 0.1% | 62 |
| 6 |  Ikorodu City | 2 | 4 | 1.1% | 31% | 0.2% | 61 |
| 7 |  Kano Pillars | 2 | 4 | 1% | 27.4% | 0.1% | 60 |
| 8 |  Sporting Lagos | 2 | 3 | 0.4% | 11.5% | 1.3% | 55 |
| 9 |  Kwara United | 3 | 4 | 0.1% | 8.7% | 1.5% | 54 |
| 10 |  Nasarawa United | 2 | 3 | 0.1% | 6% | 2.8% | 53 |
| 11 |  Niger Tornadoes | 3 | 4 | 0.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 52 |
| 12 |  Plateau United | 3 | 4 | 0.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 51 |
| 13 |  Enugu Rangers | 1 | 1 | <0.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 50 |
| 14 |  Ranchers Bees | 3 | 3 | <0.1% | 0.9% | 9.4% | 47 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 1 | 0 | <0.1% | 0.6% | 18.2% | 45 |
| 16 |  Katsina United | 2 | 1 | <0.1% | 0.3% | 30.2% | 42 |
| 17 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 3 | 2 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 34.4% | 41 |
| 18 |  Abia Warriors | 3 | 2 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 44.3% | 39 |
| 19 |  Enyimba | 2 | 0 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 57.2% | 37 |
| 20 |  Inter Lagos | 3 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 88.8% | 30 |
Next NPFL fixtures — with AI predictions
- Ikorodu City – Barau FCSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- Enyimba – Inter LagosSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Kano Pillars – Doma UnitedSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Katsina United – Niger TornadoesSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Kun Khalifat FC – Enugu RangersSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Nasarawa United – Rivers UnitedSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Plateau United – Shooting StarsSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Ranchers Bees – Bendel InsuranceSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining NPFL fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win NPFL in 2027/28?
Doma United wins NPFL in 75.9% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.