Ligue 1 · 2026/27
Ligue 1 Matchday 5 predictions
9 fixtures from September 18 to September 20. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Saturday, September 19 · 18:45
Every fixture this round
Friday, September 18
1X2
Saturday, September 19
1X2
Ligue 1 Matchday 5 runs from September 18 to September 20 with 9 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Marseille - Paris Saint Germain: Paris Saint Germain to win at 64%. The tightest match is Le Mans - Lorient, where no outcome clears 40%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Monaco 2–1 Lens, September 18: the model's pick was Monaco to win (46%) and it came in.
- Paris FC 2–1 Strasbourg, September 19: the model's pick was Paris FC to win (48%) and it came in.
- Angers 2–0 Estac Troyes, September 19: the model's pick was Angers to win (46%) and it came in.
- Lyon 4–0 Rennes, September 19: the model's pick was Lyon to win (41%) and it came in.
- Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre, September 19: the model's pick was Toulouse to win (50%) and it came in.
- Le Mans 2–1 Lorient, September 19: the model's pick was Lorient to win (40%) and it missed.
- Auxerre 2–1 Stade Brestois 29, September 20: the model's pick was Stade Brestois 29 to win (40%) and it missed.
- Nice 2–1 Lille, September 20: the model's pick was Lille to win (45%) and it missed.
- Marseille 1–2 Paris Saint Germain, September 20: the model's pick was Paris Saint Germain to win (64%) and it came in.
Matchday 5 FAQ
When is Ligue 1 Matchday 5 played?
From September 18 to September 20. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 5?
Marseille - Paris Saint Germain: Paris Saint Germain to win at 64% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.