Ligue 1 · 2026/27
Ligue 1 Matchday 4 predictions
9 fixtures from September 11 to September 13. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Saturday, September 12 · 18:45
Every fixture this round
Friday, September 11
1X2
Saturday, September 12
1X2
Ligue 1 Matchday 4 runs from September 11 to September 13 with 9 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Stade Brestois 29 - Paris Saint Germain: Paris Saint Germain to win at 79%. The tightest match is Le Havre - Angers, where no outcome clears 38%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Rennes 1–0 Marseille, September 11: the model's pick was Rennes to win (42%) and it came in.
- Strasbourg 1–1 Monaco, September 12: the model's pick was Monaco to win (46%) and it missed.
- Lorient 2–2 Toulouse, September 12: the model's pick was Lorient to win (40%) and it missed.
- Auxerre 1–0 Nice, September 12: the model's pick was Auxerre to win (40%) and it came in.
- Le Havre 0–0 Angers, September 12: the model's pick was Le Havre to win (38%) and it missed.
- Paris FC 0–0 Lyon, September 12: the model's pick was Lyon to win (39%) and it missed.
- Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes, September 13: the model's pick was Lille to win (64%) and it came in.
- Le Mans 2–2 Lens, September 13: the model's pick was Lens to win (47%) and it missed.
- Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Paris Saint Germain, September 13: the model's pick was Paris Saint Germain to win (79%) and it came in.
Matchday 4 FAQ
When is Ligue 1 Matchday 4 played?
From September 11 to September 13. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 4?
Stade Brestois 29 - Paris Saint Germain: Paris Saint Germain to win at 79% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.