La Liga · 2026/27
La Liga Matchday 5 predictions
10 fixtures from September 11 to September 14. 1X2 probabilities, correct score and implied odds, recalculated as odds and line-ups move.
Kick-off times in UTC
Match of the round
Sunday, September 13 · 19:00
Every fixture this round
Friday, September 11
1X2
Saturday, September 12
1X2
Sunday, September 13
1X2
Monday, September 14
1X2
La Liga Matchday 5 runs from September 11 to September 14 with 10 fixtures. For each one the Betora model blends recent form, Elo rating, expected goals, absences and market odds into a 1X2 probability and a most likely correct score.
The safest pick of the round is Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano: Real Madrid to win at 84%. The tightest match is Racing Santander - Alaves, where no outcome clears 39%, so treat it with care in an accumulator.
Match by match
- Sevilla 1–0 Valencia, September 11: the model's pick was Sevilla to win (48%) and it came in.
- Racing Santander 2–1 Alaves, September 12: the model's pick was Alaves to win (39%) and it missed.
- Osasuna 0–2 Espanyol, September 12: the model's pick was Osasuna to win (45%) and it missed.
- Athletic Club 1–1 Elche, September 12: the model's pick was Athletic Club to win (64%) and it missed.
- Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano, September 12: the model's pick was Real Madrid to win (84%) and it came in.
- Celta Vigo 1–1 Malaga, September 13: the model's pick was Celta Vigo to win (53%) and it missed.
- Levante 2–4 Barcelona, September 13: the model's pick was Barcelona to win (82%) and it came in.
- Getafe 1–1 Deportivo La Coruna, September 13: the model's pick was Getafe to win (40%) and it missed.
- Real Sociedad 0–3 Atletico Madrid, September 13: the model's pick was Atletico Madrid to win (45%) and it came in.
- Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis, September 14: the model's pick was Villarreal to win (40%) and it missed.
Matchday 5 FAQ
When is La Liga Matchday 5 played?
From September 11 to September 14. Kick-off times on this page are shown in UTC.
What is the safest pick of Matchday 5?
Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano: Real Madrid to win at 84% probability according to the Betora model. No prediction is guaranteed: use the probabilities to compare odds.
How are these predictions calculated?
Every match is rated by a model that combines Elo rating, expected goals (xG), form over the last 5 games, injuries and suspensions, and bookmaker odds. The output is a probability for each outcome and the most likely correct score.
Do the predictions change before kick-off?
Yes. Probabilities are recalculated until kick-off whenever odds move or the official line-ups are announced.