Who Will Win Primera División?
2,000 season simulations · 3 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera División 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Trujillanos FC wins Primera División in 75.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Portuguesa FC — 24.4% title chance.
Rayo Zuliano goes down in 100% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Trujillanos FC | 1 | 3 | 75.7% | 100% | <0.1% | 5 |
| 2 |  Portuguesa FC | 1 | 3 | 24.4% | 54.5% | <0.1% | 4 |
| 3 |  Zamora FC | 1 | 3 | <0.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 3 |
| 4 |  Deportivo La Guaira | 1 | 3 | <0.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 3 |
| 5 |  Metropolitanos FC | 1 | 3 | <0.1% | 45.6% | <0.1% | 3 |
| 6 |  Caracas FC | 0 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Tachira FC | 0 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2 |
| 8 |  Estudiantes de Merida FC | 0 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1 |
| 9 |  Carabobo FC | 1 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 43.6% | 1 |
| 10 |  Academia Anzoátegui | 0 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0 |
| 11 |  Monagas SC | 1 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0 |
| 12 |  Puerto Cabello | 1 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 56.5% | 0 |
| 13 |  Rayo Zuliano | 1 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 0 |
| 14 |  UCV | 1 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 0 |
Next Primera División fixtures — with AI predictions
- Caracas FC – Estudiantes de Merida FCMon, Aug 3AI prediction →
- Carabobo FC – Trujillanos FCTue, Aug 4AI prediction →
- Deportivo Tachira FC – Portuguesa FCTue, Aug 4AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera División fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera División in 2026?
Trujillanos FC wins Primera División in 75.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.