Who Will Win Liga de Expansión MX?
2,000 season simulations · 240 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga de Expansión MX 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
CA La Paz wins Liga de Expansión MX in 53.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Leones Negros UDG — 41.8% title chance.
Tepatitlán goes down in 100% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | 30 | 53.7% | 98.7% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | 30 | 41.8% | 98.4% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | 26 | 2% | 53.5% | <0.1% | 50 |
| 4 |  Cancún | 15 | 25 | 1% | 42.3% | <0.1% | 49 |
| 5 |  Piratas | 15 | 25 | 0.8% | 47.9% | <0.1% | 50 |
| 6 |  Durango | 15 | 24 | 0.5% | 19.9% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 7 |  Venados FC | 15 | 25 | 0.4% | 34.9% | <0.1% | 49 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | 22 | <0.1% | 3.1% | 0.1% | 44 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | 22 | <0.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 42 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 18 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5.9% | 37 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | 18 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 7.6% | 37 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | 17 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 15.8% | 35 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | 16 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 37.5% | 33 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | 15 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 60.5% | 31 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | 14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 72.1% | 30 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 17 |
Next Liga de Expansión MX fixtures — with AI predictions
- Venados FC – MonarcasWed, Nov 4AI prediction
- Tlaxcala – CA La PazThu, Nov 5AI prediction
- Cancún – PiratasFri, Nov 6AI prediction
- Durango – Leones Negros UDGFri, Nov 6AI prediction
- Monarcas – Venados FCSun, Nov 8AI prediction
- CA La Paz – TlaxcalaSun, Nov 8AI prediction
- Leones Negros UDG – DurangoSun, Nov 8AI prediction
- Piratas – CancúnMon, Nov 9AI prediction
Methodology
Every remaining Liga de Expansión MX fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga de Expansión MX in 2026?
CA La Paz wins Liga de Expansión MX in 53.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.