Who Will Win Liga de Expansión MX?
2,000 season simulations · 240 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga de Expansión MX 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Monarcas wins Liga de Expansión MX in 58.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Leones Negros UDG — 35.1% title chance.
Tepatitlán goes down in 100% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monarcas | 8 | 18 | 58.7% | 98.7% | <0.1% | 61 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 8 | 17 | 35.1% | 96.7% | <0.1% | 59 |
| 3 |  CA La Paz | 8 | 14 | 3.8% | 66% | <0.1% | 52 |
| 4 |  Dorados | 7 | 11 | 1.1% | 31.9% | 0.5% | 47 |
| 5 |  Venados FC | 8 | 13 | 0.7% | 37.3% | 0.2% | 48 |
| 6 |  Piratas | 8 | 12 | 0.4% | 22% | 0.8% | 45 |
| 7 |  Correcaminos Uat | 8 | 12 | 0.4% | 18.3% | 0.8% | 44 |
| 8 |  Cancún | 7 | 10 | <0.1% | 13.6% | 1.4% | 44 |
| 9 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 8 | 11 | <0.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 42 |
| 10 |  Tapatío | 8 | 11 | <0.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 41 |
| 11 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 8 | 10 | <0.1% | 1.9% | 13.9% | 37 |
| 12 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 8 | 10 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 15.4% | 37 |
| 13 |  Tlaxcala | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 43.5% | 33 |
| 14 |  Durango | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 50.3% | 32 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 8 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 67% | 30 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 8 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 16 |
Next Liga de Expansión MX fixtures — with AI predictions
- Durango – Cruz Azul HidalgoFri, Sep 18AI prediction →
- Tepatitlán – Mineros de ZacatecasSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- Piratas – Venados FCSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- CA La Paz – Correcaminos UatSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- Monarcas – Leones Negros UDGSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Cancún – Alebrijes de OaxacaSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- CDS Tampico Madero – DoradosSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Tapatío – TlaxcalaSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Liga de Expansión MX fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga de Expansión MX in 2026?
Monarcas wins Liga de Expansión MX in 58.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.