Who Will Win Eerste Divisie?
2,000 season simulations · 380 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Eerste Divisie 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
MVV wins Eerste Divisie in 6.5% of 2,000 season simulations.
De Graafschap — 6.1% title chance.
Jong PSV U21 goes down in 16.4% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MVV | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 22.7% | 13.1% | 53 |
| 2 |  De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 22.5% | 13.4% | 53 |
| 3 |  FC Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 21.3% | 15% | 52 |
| 4 |  Roda | 0 | 0 | 5.5% | 19.1% | 15.2% | 52 |
| 5 |  FC OSS | 0 | 0 | 5.4% | 21.1% | 15.1% | 53 |
| 6 |  FC Volendam | 0 | 0 | 5.2% | 21.3% | 15.2% | 53 |
| 7 |  Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 5.2% | 20.9% | 15% | 52 |
| 8 |  Jong AZ | 0 | 0 | 5.2% | 18.4% | 16.3% | 52 |
| 9 |  Almere City FC | 0 | 0 | 4.9% | 20.6% | 15% | 53 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 4.9% | 20.4% | 13.4% | 52 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 4.9% | 20.1% | 15.3% | 52 |
| 12 |  VVV Venlo | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 22.1% | 13.9% | 52 |
| 13 |  Jong Ajax | 0 | 0 | 4.7% | 19.6% | 16.3% | 53 |
| 14 |  NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 4.7% | 18.2% | 15.5% | 52 |
| 15 |  Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 4.6% | 19.5% | 15.2% | 53 |
| 16 |  Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 19.3% | 14% | 52 |
| 17 |  Emmen | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 19.8% | 15% | 52 |
| 18 |  Heracles | 0 | 0 | 4.4% | 18.7% | 16.2% | 52 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 4.4% | 17.6% | 15.9% | 52 |
| 20 |  Jong PSV U21 | 0 | 0 | 3.9% | 17.2% | 16.4% | 52 |
Next Eerste Divisie fixtures — with AI predictions
- Dordrecht – VVV VenloSat, Oct 24AI prediction →
- Emmen – Den BoschFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- Roda – Jong AZFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- FC Volendam – De GraafschapFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- Waalwijk – Almere City FCFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- Helmond Sport – FC EindhovenFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- MVV – VVV VenloSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Heracles – FC OSSMon, Nov 2AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Eerste Divisie fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Eerste Divisie in 2026/27?
MVV wins Eerste Divisie in 6.5% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.