Who Will Win Eerste Divisie?
2,000 season simulations · 380 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Eerste Divisie 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
VVV Venlo wins Eerste Divisie in 6.4% of 2,000 season simulations.
Den Bosch — 5.7% title chance.
Jong AZ goes down in 17.8% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  VVV Venlo | 0 | 0 | 6.4% | 22.5% | 14% | 53 |
| 2 |  Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 5.7% | 20.7% | 15.1% | 52 |
| 3 |  Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 5.7% | 20.7% | 14% | 52 |
| 4 |  FC Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 5.5% | 20.3% | 14.3% | 52 |
| 5 |  Emmen | 0 | 0 | 5.5% | 20.1% | 13.9% | 52 |
| 6 |  FC OSS | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 20.5% | 14.9% | 53 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 20.5% | 13.8% | 53 |
| 8 |  De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 20.9% | 13.9% | 52 |
| 9 |  Almere City FC | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 20.4% | 15.5% | 52 |
| 10 |  Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 5.2% | 20.9% | 15.2% | 52 |
| 11 |  Heracles | 0 | 0 | 5.1% | 19.5% | 14% | 53 |
| 12 |  MVV | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 20.2% | 15% | 52 |
| 13 |  Jong Ajax | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 19.2% | 16.8% | 52 |
| 14 |  Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 4.6% | 19.5% | 16.3% | 52 |
| 15 |  Jong Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 19.4% | 16% | 53 |
| 16 |  NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 19.3% | 16.4% | 52 |
| 17 |  Roda | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 19.8% | 15.2% | 52 |
| 18 |  Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 18.9% | 13.6% | 53 |
| 19 |  Jong PSV U21 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 19.4% | 14.8% | 53 |
| 20 |  Jong AZ | 0 | 0 | 3.9% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 52 |
Next Eerste Divisie fixtures — with AI predictions
- NAC Breda – Jong UtrechtFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- VVV Venlo – FC OSSFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- Heracles – Jong AZFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- Emmen – De GraafschapFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- MVV – Almere City FCFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- FC Eindhoven – DordrechtFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- Helmond Sport – Jong PSV U21Fri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- Jong Ajax – WaalwijkFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Eerste Divisie fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Eerste Divisie in 2026/27?
VVV Venlo wins Eerste Divisie in 6.4% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.