Who Will Win Peru Liga 1?
2,000 season simulations · 306 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga 1 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Deportivo Garcilaso wins Liga 1 in 56.9% of 2,000 season simulations.
Sporting Cristal — 10% title chance.
UTC Cajamarca goes down in 98.1% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 10 | 22 | 56.9% | 91.3% | <0.1% | 69 |
| 2 |  Sporting Cristal | 10 | 19 | 10% | 54.8% | <0.1% | 62 |
| 3 |  Universitario | 10 | 20 | 9.6% | 54.9% | <0.1% | 62 |
| 4 |  Alianza Atletico | 10 | 19 | 5.2% | 35.8% | <0.1% | 60 |
| 5 |  Sport Huancayo | 10 | 19 | 4.3% | 36.9% | <0.1% | 60 |
| 6 |  Juan Pablo II College | 10 | 18 | 3.9% | 30.1% | <0.1% | 59 |
| 7 |  Sport Boys | 10 | 18 | 3.9% | 30.6% | <0.1% | 59 |
| 8 |  FBC Melgar | 10 | 18 | 3% | 30.3% | <0.1% | 59 |
| 9 |  Cusco | 10 | 18 | 2.9% | 25% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 10 |  Alianza Lima | 10 | 16 | 0.6% | 6.8% | <0.1% | 53 |
| 11 |  Atletico Grau | 10 | 16 | 0.1% | 3.7% | <0.1% | 52 |
| 12 |  FC Cajamarca | 10 | 10 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5.3% | 37 |
| 13 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 10 | 9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 7.1% | 36 |
| 14 |  Cienciano | 8 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 12.2% | 34 |
| 15 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 9 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 35.4% | 30 |
| 16 |  UCV Moquegua | 10 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 44.1% | 29 |
| 17 |  UTC Cajamarca | 10 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 98.1% | 18 |
| 18 |  ADT | 9 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 97.9% | 18 |
Next Liga 1 fixtures — with AI predictions
- ADT – CiencianoWed, Sep 23AI prediction →
- Cienciano – Club Deportivo Los ChankasWed, Sep 30AI prediction →
- UCV Moquegua – CiencianoThu, Oct 8AI prediction →
- Atletico Grau – Club Deportivo Los ChankasThu, Oct 8AI prediction →
- Deportivo Garcilaso – Sport HuancayoSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- ADT – FC CajamarcaSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Comerciantes Unidos – Juan Pablo II CollegeSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
- Universitario – FBC MelgarSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Liga 1 fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga 1 in 2026?
Deportivo Garcilaso wins Liga 1 in 56.9% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.