Who Will Win Liga 1?
2,000 season simulations · 36 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga 1 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
FBC Melgar wins Liga 1 in 25.1% of 2,000 season simulations.
Alianza Lima — 21.8% title chance.
ADT goes down in 78.8% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FBC Melgar | 3 | 7 | 25.1% | 65.1% | <0.1% | 14 |
| 2 |  Alianza Lima | 3 | 7 | 21.8% | 63% | <0.1% | 14 |
| 3 |  Cusco | 3 | 6 | 13.2% | 49.1% | 0.2% | 13 |
| 4 |  Sport Huancayo | 3 | 6 | 9.9% | 48.6% | 0.2% | 13 |
| 5 |  Universitario | 3 | 6 | 8% | 37.9% | 0.1% | 13 |
| 6 |  Sport Boys | 3 | 6 | 7% | 38.1% | 0.2% | 12 |
| 7 |  Sporting Cristal | 3 | 6 | 5.2% | 29.5% | 0.6% | 12 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Garcilaso | 3 | 6 | 4.7% | 29.1% | 0.4% | 12 |
| 9 |  Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 3 | 6 | 4.6% | 25.4% | 0.2% | 12 |
| 10 |  Juan Pablo II College | 3 | 4 | 0.3% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 10 |
| 11 |  Atletico Grau | 3 | 3 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 12.5% | 8 |
| 12 |  UCV Moquegua | 3 | 3 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 15.1% | 8 |
| 13 |  Alianza Atletico | 3 | 3 | 0.1% | 2.2% | 15.4% | 8 |
| 14 |  Cienciano | 3 | 3 | 0.1% | 1.2% | 24.3% | 7 |
| 15 |  Comerciantes Unidos | 3 | 2 | <0.1% | 1.1% | 25.1% | 7 |
| 16 |  FC Cajamarca | 3 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 64.7% | 5 |
| 17 |  UTC Cajamarca | 3 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 59.3% | 5 |
| 18 |  ADT | 3 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 78.8% | 4 |
Next Liga 1 fixtures — with AI predictions
- Alianza Atletico – CiencianoThu, Aug 6AI prediction →
- Sport Huancayo – Club Deportivo Los ChankasFri, Aug 7AI prediction →
- Comerciantes Unidos – CuscoFri, Aug 7AI prediction →
- Universitario – Sporting CristalSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- UTC Cajamarca – ADTSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Juan Pablo II College – Atletico GrauSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Sport Boys – Alianza LimaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Deportivo Garcilaso – UCV MoqueguaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Liga 1 fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga 1 in 2026?
FBC Melgar wins Liga 1 in 25.1% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.