Who Will Win Liga MX?
2,000 season simulations · 306 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga MX 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Toluca wins Liga MX in 53.8% of 2,000 season simulations.
Club America — 29.1% title chance.
FC Juarez goes down in 98.3% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Toluca | 8 | 19 | 53.8% | 97.9% | <0.1% | 72 |
| 2 |  Club America | 7 | 16 | 29.1% | 93.4% | <0.1% | 70 |
| 3 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 17 | 14.3% | 86.5% | <0.1% | 66 |
| 4 |  Club Queretaro | 7 | 13 | 1.2% | 35.9% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 15 | 0.8% | 34.3% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 7 | 13 | 0.8% | 30% | <0.1% | 57 |
| 7 |  Leon | 8 | 13 | <0.1% | 7.8% | <0.1% | 53 |
| 8 |  Atlas | 8 | 13 | <0.1% | 4.4% | <0.1% | 51 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 9 | 14 | <0.1% | 4% | <0.1% | 50 |
| 10 |  CF Pachuca | 8 | 11 | <0.1% | 2.4% | <0.1% | 49 |
| 11 |  Monterrey | 7 | 10 | <0.1% | 3% | 0.1% | 49 |
| 12 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 8 | 11 | <0.1% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 46 |
| 13 |  Necaxa | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10.9% | 37 |
| 14 |  Atlante FC | 9 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 24.1% | 34 |
| 15 |  Tigres UANL | 9 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 33.2% | 32 |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 8 | 6 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 50.1% | 30 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 82.8% | 26 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 9 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 98.3% | 20 |
Next Liga MX fixtures — with AI predictions
- Toluca – Santos LagunaMon, Sep 21AI prediction →
- CF Pachuca – Club TijuanaMon, Sep 21AI prediction →
- Club Queretaro – LeonMon, Sep 21AI prediction →
- Atlante FC – MonterreySat, Sep 26AI prediction →
- Club Tijuana – AtlasSat, Sep 26AI prediction →
- Cruz Azul – TolucaSat, Sep 26AI prediction →
- Guadalajara Chivas – Club QueretaroSat, Sep 26AI prediction →
- Tigres UANL – PueblaSun, Sep 27AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Liga MX fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga MX in 2026?
Toluca wins Liga MX in 53.8% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.