Who Will Win Liga MX?
2,000 season simulations · 27 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga MX 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Club America wins Liga MX in 44.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Club Tijuana — 16% title chance.
FC Juarez goes down in 94.6% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 3 | 7 | 44.7% | 82.7% | <0.1% | 13 |
| 2 |  Club Tijuana | 3 | 7 | 16% | 61.7% | <0.1% | 12 |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 3 | 6 | 12.2% | 60.6% | <0.1% | 12 |
| 4 |  Toluca | 3 | 6 | 7.8% | 43.6% | 0.1% | 11 |
| 5 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 6 | 5.1% | 32.5% | <0.1% | 10 |
| 6 |  Atlas | 3 | 6 | 4.4% | 30.2% | <0.1% | 11 |
| 7 |  Necaxa | 3 | 6 | 4.1% | 26.1% | <0.1% | 11 |
| 8 |  Club Queretaro | 3 | 6 | 2.8% | 20.7% | <0.1% | 10 |
| 9 |  Cruz Azul | 3 | 6 | 2.7% | 22.8% | <0.1% | 10 |
| 10 |  Atlante FC | 3 | 4 | 0.2% | 7.3% | 1.9% | 9 |
| 11 |  Puebla | 3 | 4 | 0.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 8 |
| 12 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 4 | 0.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 8 |
| 13 |  CF Pachuca | 3 | 3 | 0.1% | 2.6% | 7% | 7 |
| 14 |  Leon | 3 | 3 | <0.1% | 1% | 15% | 6 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 3 | 2 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 44.1% | 5 |
| 16 |  Tigres UANL | 3 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 56.4% | 4 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 75.2% | 3 |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 3 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 94.6% | 2 |
Next Liga MX fixtures — with AI predictions
- Atlante FC – TolucaSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Monterrey – FC JuarezSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Atlas – Tigres UANLSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas – Club QueretaroSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Club America – Atletico San LuisSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Santos Laguna – Guadalajara ChivasMon, Aug 17AI prediction →
- Club Tijuana – Cruz AzulMon, Aug 17AI prediction →
- Necaxa – LeonTue, Aug 18AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Liga MX fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga MX in 2026?
Club America wins Liga MX in 44.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.