Who Will Win Uruguay Primera División?
2,000 season simulations · 240 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera División 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Liverpool Montevideo wins Primera División in 58% of 2,000 season simulations.
Club Nacional — 22.7% title chance.
Central Espanol goes down in 97.9% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 11 | 24 | 58% | 97.9% | <0.1% | 61 |
| 2 |  Club Nacional | 11 | 23 | 22.7% | 93.7% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 11 | 22 | 16.1% | 89.1% | <0.1% | 57 |
| 4 |  Penarol | 12 | 21 | 1.7% | 44.6% | <0.1% | 51 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 12 | 21 | 1.3% | 44.2% | <0.1% | 51 |
| 6 |  Cerro | 11 | 18 | 0.2% | 14.2% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 7 |  Juventud | 12 | 18 | 0.1% | 5.3% | 0.1% | 45 |
| 8 |  Progreso | 12 | 19 | <0.1% | 8.8% | <0.1% | 46 |
| 9 |  Racing Montevideo | 12 | 16 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 41 |
| 10 |  Boston River | 11 | 15 | <0.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 41 |
| 11 |  Wanderers | 12 | 15 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 38 |
| 12 |  Albion FC | 12 | 12 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 9.3% | 33 |
| 13 |  Danubio | 12 | 10 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 39.6% | 29 |
| 14 |  Defensor Sporting | 12 | 9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 63.5% | 26 |
| 15 |  Cerro Largo | 11 | 6 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 88.4% | 23 |
| 16 |  Central Espanol | 12 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 97.9% | 19 |
Next Primera División fixtures — with AI predictions
- Cerro Largo – Boston RiverSun, Oct 25AI prediction →
- Club Nacional – Liverpool MontevideoSun, Oct 25AI prediction →
- Racing Montevideo – Cerro LargoSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Cerro – Central EspanolSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Penarol – WanderersSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Progreso – Defensor SportingSun, Nov 1AI prediction →
- Boston River – Atletico TorqueSun, Nov 1AI prediction →
- Danubio – Club NacionalSun, Nov 1AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera División fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera División in 2026?
Liverpool Montevideo wins Primera División in 58% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.