Who Will Win Primera División?
2,000 season simulations · 240 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera División 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Atletico Torque wins Primera División in 54% of 2,000 season simulations.
Liverpool Montevideo — 45.5% title chance.
Albion FC goes down in 96.5% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Torque | 4 | 12 | 54% | 99.8% | <0.1% | 70 |
| 2 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 5 | 13 | 45.5% | 99.8% | <0.1% | 69 |
| 3 |  Cerro | 5 | 10 | 0.4% | 57.9% | 0.1% | 52 |
| 4 |  Penarol | 4 | 7 | 0.2% | 42.1% | <0.1% | 50 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 5 | 8 | 0.1% | 24% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 6 |  Juventud | 5 | 8 | <0.1% | 23% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 7 |  Racing Montevideo | 5 | 8 | <0.1% | 22.9% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 8 |  Boston River | 5 | 8 | <0.1% | 20.1% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 9 |  Club Nacional | 5 | 7 | <0.1% | 5.2% | 0.3% | 42 |
| 10 |  Wanderers | 5 | 7 | <0.1% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 41 |
| 11 |  Progreso | 5 | 6 | <0.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 38 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 14.8% | 31 |
| 13 |  Central Espanol | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 23.7% | 29 |
| 14 |  Danubio | 5 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 79.7% | 22 |
| 15 |  Defensor Sporting | 5 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 82.7% | 21 |
| 16 |  Albion FC | 5 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 96.5% | 16 |
Next Primera División fixtures — with AI predictions
- Racing Montevideo – Boston RiverSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Wanderers – Club NacionalSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Cerro Largo – Central EspanolSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Progreso – CerroSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Juventud – DanubioSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Penarol – Albion FCSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Defensor Sporting – Deportivo MaldonadoSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Atletico Torque – Liverpool MontevideoMon, Sep 14AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera División fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera División in 2026?
Atletico Torque wins Primera División in 54% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.