Who Will Win Gaúcho?
2,000 season simulations · 132 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Gaúcho 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Internacional wins Gaúcho in 89.8% of 2,000 season simulations.
Juventude — 7.4% title chance.
Inter Santa Maria goes down in 91% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internacional | 6 | 15 | 89.8% | 100% | <0.1% | 49 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 6 | 12 | 7.4% | 95.6% | 0.1% | 41 |
| 3 |  Gremio | 6 | 10 | 2.5% | 81.4% | 0.2% | 37 |
| 4 |  Sao Jose | 6 | 9 | 0.3% | 40% | 4.6% | 32 |
| 5 |  Monsoon | 6 | 8 | 0.1% | 23.7% | 12.7% | 30 |
| 6 |  Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 8 | 0.1% | 15.7% | 17.7% | 29 |
| 7 |  Avenida | 6 | 8 | 0.1% | 20.5% | 13.2% | 29 |
| 8 |  Caxias | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 11.9% | 23.1% | 28 |
| 9 |  Ypiranga-RS | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 4.9% | 36.8% | 26 |
| 10 |  São Luiz | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 4.1% | 45.9% | 25 |
| 11 |  Novo Hamburgo | 6 | 6 | <0.1% | 2.3% | 55% | 24 |
| 12 |  Inter Santa Maria | 6 | 4 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 91% | 19 |
Methodology
Every remaining Gaúcho fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Gaúcho in 2026?
Internacional wins Gaúcho in 89.8% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.