Who Will Win Primera División?
2,000 season simulations · 240 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera División 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Bolívar wins Primera División in 53.9% of 2,000 season simulations.
Always Ready — 42.6% title chance.
Universitario de Vinto goes down in 90.8% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bolívar | 18 | 39 | 53.9% | 100% | <0.1% | 63 |
| 2 |  Always Ready | 18 | 39 | 42.6% | 100% | <0.1% | 63 |
| 3 |  The Strongest | 18 | 36 | 3.6% | 100% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 4 |  Oriente Petrolero | 18 | 27 | <0.1% | 34.1% | <0.1% | 45 |
| 5 |  Aurora | 18 | 27 | <0.1% | 26.1% | <0.1% | 45 |
| 6 |  Real Potosí | 18 | 26 | <0.1% | 20% | <0.1% | 44 |
| 7 |  Guabirá | 18 | 26 | <0.1% | 11% | <0.1% | 43 |
| 8 |  Independiente Petrolero | 18 | 25 | <0.1% | 4.7% | <0.1% | 41 |
| 9 |  Nacional Potosí | 18 | 24 | <0.1% | 3.2% | <0.1% | 41 |
| 10 |  Blooming | 18 | 23 | <0.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 39 |
| 11 |  Real Oruro | 18 | 21 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 35 |
| 12 |  ABB | 18 | 20 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3% | 34 |
| 13 |  San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 18 | 17 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 44.1% | 29 |
| 14 |  Real Tomayapo | 18 | 16 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 71.6% | 28 |
| 15 |  Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 18 | 14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 89.4% | 26 |
| 16 |  Universitario de Vinto | 18 | 14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 90.8% | 26 |
Next Primera División fixtures — with AI predictions
- San Antonio Bulo Bulo – AuroraFri, Sep 11AI prediction →
- Real Potosí – Oriente PetroleroSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Gualberto Villarroel SJ – Nacional PotosíSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- The Strongest – Real OruroSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Blooming – ABBSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Always Ready – GuabiráSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Universitario de Vinto – Independiente PetroleroSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Real Tomayapo – BolívarSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera División fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera División in 2026?
Bolívar wins Primera División in 53.9% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.