Who Will Win A-League?
2,000 season simulations · 132 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the A-League 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Adelaide United wins A-League in 10.1% of 2,000 season simulations.
Central Coast Mariners — 9.8% title chance.
Auckland goes down in 27.5% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 10.1% | 36.5% | 22.5% | 30 |
| 2 |  Central Coast Mariners | 0 | 0 | 9.8% | 35.7% | 21.6% | 30 |
| 3 |  Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 9.4% | 36.2% | 24.4% | 30 |
| 4 |  Perth Glory | 0 | 0 | 9.1% | 33.6% | 24.5% | 30 |
| 5 |  Sydney | 0 | 0 | 9% | 34.7% | 24.5% | 31 |
| 6 |  Brisbane Roar | 0 | 0 | 8.5% | 33.9% | 24% | 30 |
| 7 |  Auckland | 0 | 0 | 8.1% | 30.8% | 27.5% | 30 |
| 8 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 0 | 0 | 7.8% | 31.7% | 27.5% | 30 |
| 9 |  Macarthur | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 33.1% | 25.4% | 31 |
| 10 |  Wellington Phoenix | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 31.5% | 26.2% | 30 |
| 11 |  Melbourne City | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 31.4% | 26.3% | 30 |
| 12 |  Melbourne Victory | 0 | 0 | 6.2% | 31.1% | 25.9% | 30 |
Methodology
Every remaining A-League fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win A-League in 2026/27?
Adelaide United wins A-League in 10.1% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.