Who Will Win A-League?
2,000 season simulations · 132 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the A-League 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Wellington Phoenix wins A-League in 56.5% of 2,000 season simulations.
Brisbane Roar — 13.5% title chance.
Perth Glory goes down in 72% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 6 | 56.5% | 95.2% | 0.1% | 43 |
| 2 |  Brisbane Roar | 1 | 3 | 13.5% | 68.3% | 1.9% | 37 |
| 3 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 4 | 11.2% | 67% | 1.8% | 36 |
| 4 |  Macarthur | 2 | 4 | 8.4% | 57.9% | 2.4% | 35 |
| 5 |  Sydney | 2 | 4 | 6.6% | 54.7% | 1.7% | 35 |
| 6 |  Auckland | 2 | 3 | 2.7% | 26.1% | 10.3% | 31 |
| 7 |  Newcastle Jets | 2 | 2 | 0.3% | 12.2% | 20.8% | 28 |
| 8 |  Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0.3% | 6.2% | 40.9% | 25 |
| 9 |  Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 1 | 0.3% | 3.7% | 50.8% | 24 |
| 10 |  Melbourne Victory | 2 | 1 | 0.2% | 4.1% | 45.4% | 24 |
| 11 |  Melbourne City | 2 | 1 | 0.1% | 3.7% | 52.1% | 24 |
| 12 |  Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0.1% | 1% | 72% | 21 |
Next A-League fixtures — with AI predictions
- Brisbane Roar – AucklandFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- Newcastle Jets – Wellington PhoenixSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Melbourne City – SydneySat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Macarthur – Western Sydney WanderersSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Melbourne Victory – Central Coast MarinersSun, Nov 1AI prediction →
- Perth Glory – Adelaide UnitedSun, Nov 1AI prediction →
- Sydney – Central Coast MarinersFri, Nov 6AI prediction →
- Auckland – Wellington PhoenixSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining A-League fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win A-League in 2026/27?
Wellington Phoenix wins A-League in 56.5% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.