Who Will Win Segunda Liga?
2,000 season simulations · 306 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Segunda Liga 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Lusitânia Lourosa wins Segunda Liga in 63.6% of 2,000 season simulations.
Sporting CP B — 20.3% title chance.
Feirense goes down in 95% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 5 | 13 | 63.6% | 98.4% | <0.1% | 75 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 5 | 12 | 20.3% | 91.1% | <0.1% | 69 |
| 3 |  Penafiel | 6 | 13 | 13% | 86.2% | <0.1% | 68 |
| 4 |  Vizela | 5 | 10 | 2.2% | 54.8% | <0.1% | 62 |
| 5 |  União de Leiria | 5 | 9 | 0.6% | 27% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 6 |  Benfica B | 6 | 10 | 0.3% | 10.9% | <0.1% | 54 |
| 7 |  Farense | 4 | 7 | 0.1% | 14.7% | <0.1% | 54 |
| 8 |  Academica | 6 | 9 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 48 |
| 9 |  Leixoes | 6 | 10 | <0.1% | 11% | <0.1% | 54 |
| 10 |  Tondela | 6 | 9 | <0.1% | 4% | 0.3% | 50 |
| 11 |  Portimonense | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 42 |
| 12 |  AVS | 5 | 5 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 4.9% | 39 |
| 13 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 6 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 7% | 38 |
| 14 |  Torreense | 6 | 6 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 6.9% | 38 |
| 15 |  Amarante | 5 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 24.2% | 33 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 5 | 3 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 80% | 26 |
| 17 |  Chaves | 4 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 79.1% | 26 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 5 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 95% | 21 |
Next Segunda Liga fixtures — with AI predictions
- FC Porto B – VizelaMon, Sep 14AI prediction →
- Sporting CP B – Lusitânia LourosaMon, Sep 14AI prediction →
- Tondela – TorreenseSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Benfica B – Felgueiras 1932Sun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Farense – FeirenseSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Penafiel – AVSSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Leixoes – FC Porto BSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
- Vizela – Sporting CP BSun, Oct 11AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Segunda Liga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Segunda Liga in 2026/27?
Lusitânia Lourosa wins Segunda Liga in 63.6% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.