Who Will Win MLS?
2,000 season simulations · 870 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the MLS 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Nashville SC wins MLS in 88.5% of 2,000 season simulations.
Vancouver Whitecaps — 10.5% title chance.
Sporting Kansas City goes down in 97.2% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 54 | 88.5% | 99.9% | <0.1% | 118 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 46 | 10.5% | 95.5% | <0.1% | 108 |
| 3 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 45 | 0.6% | 64.5% | <0.1% | 101 |
| 4 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 43 | 0.3% | 29.6% | <0.1% | 96 |
| 5 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 43 | 0.1% | 33.9% | <0.1% | 96 |
| 6 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 43 | 0.1% | 25.8% | <0.1% | 95 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 41 | 0.1% | 12.3% | <0.1% | 93 |
| 8 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 41 | <0.1% | 12.5% | <0.1% | 93 |
| 9 |  Chicago Fire | 24 | 39 | <0.1% | 13.2% | <0.1% | 93 |
| 10 |  Charlotte | 25 | 40 | <0.1% | 8.9% | <0.1% | 91 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles FC | 26 | 40 | <0.1% | 4% | <0.1% | 89 |
| 12 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 35 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 81 |
| 13 |  Philadelphia Union | 25 | 33 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 79 |
| 14 |  Orlando City SC | 25 | 34 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 77 |
| 15 |  FC Cincinnati | 24 | 32 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 77 |
| 16 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 32 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 76 |
| 17 |  New York City FC | 26 | 32 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 75 |
| 18 |  New York Red Bulls | 26 | 33 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 73 |
| 19 |  San Diego | 25 | 30 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1% | 73 |
| 20 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.2% | 73 |
| 21 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 28 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1% | 73 |
| 22 |  DC United | 24 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 72 |
| 23 |  Minnesota United FC | 25 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.1% | 70 |
| 24 |  Toronto FC | 25 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.5% | 70 |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 30 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.5% | 69 |
| 26 |  Austin | 25 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.8% | 69 |
| 27 |  Columbus Crew | 25 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 44.1% | 60 |
| 28 |  Atlanta United FC | 25 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 57% | 58 |
| 29 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 21 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 83.9% | 54 |
| 30 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 18 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 97.2% | 49 |
Next MLS fixtures — with AI predictions
- San Jose Earthquakes – Los Angeles FCSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- New England Revolution – Orlando City SCSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- CF Montreal – Columbus CrewSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- DC United – CharlotteSat, Sep 19AI prediction →
- FC Dallas – AustinSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Houston Dynamo – FC CincinnatiSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Sporting Kansas City – Philadelphia UnionSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Minnesota United FC – Los Angeles GalaxySun, Sep 20AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining MLS fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win MLS in 2026?
Nashville SC wins MLS in 88.5% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.