Who Will Win MLS?
2,000 season simulations · 870 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the MLS 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Nashville SC wins MLS in 99.9% of 2,000 season simulations.
Vancouver Whitecaps — 0.1% title chance.
Sporting Kansas City goes down in 100% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 33 | 74 | 99.9% | 100% | <0.1% | 125 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 33 | 61 | 0.1% | 97.1% | <0.1% | 106 |
| 3 |  Inter Miami | 33 | 59 | 0.1% | 83.4% | <0.1% | 101 |
| 4 |  New England Revolution | 33 | 58 | <0.1% | 58.2% | <0.1% | 98 |
| 5 |  FC Dallas | 33 | 55 | <0.1% | 21.1% | <0.1% | 94 |
| 6 |  Chicago Fire | 33 | 55 | <0.1% | 22.9% | <0.1% | 94 |
| 7 |  Charlotte | 33 | 53 | <0.1% | 9.4% | <0.1% | 92 |
| 8 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 52 | <0.1% | 4% | <0.1% | 90 |
| 9 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 51 | <0.1% | 2.2% | <0.1% | 89 |
| 10 |  Houston Dynamo | 33 | 51 | <0.1% | 1.8% | <0.1% | 88 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles FC | 33 | 47 | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 84 |
| 12 |  Philadelphia Union | 33 | 47 | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 83 |
| 13 |  FC Cincinnati | 33 | 46 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 80 |
| 14 |  Columbus Crew | 33 | 44 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 79 |
| 15 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 33 | 44 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 77 |
| 16 |  Colorado Rapids | 33 | 43 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 77 |
| 17 |  Seattle Sounders | 33 | 43 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 77 |
| 18 |  Portland Timbers | 33 | 43 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 76 |
| 19 |  Orlando City SC | 33 | 43 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 75 |
| 20 |  Real Salt Lake | 33 | 42 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 75 |
| 21 |  Minnesota United FC | 33 | 41 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 73 |
| 22 |  New York City FC | 33 | 39 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 71 |
| 23 |  Toronto FC | 33 | 39 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 70 |
| 24 |  New York Red Bulls | 33 | 39 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.3% | 69 |
| 25 |  San Diego | 33 | 38 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2% | 69 |
| 26 |  Austin | 33 | 34 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 25.8% | 62 |
| 27 |  Atlanta United FC | 33 | 33 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 31.3% | 61 |
| 28 |  DC United | 33 | 33 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 39.6% | 61 |
| 29 |  CF Montreal | 33 | 26 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 98.5% | 50 |
| 30 |  Sporting Kansas City | 33 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 45 |
Next MLS fixtures — with AI predictions
- Orlando City SC – New England RevolutionSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- Philadelphia Union – Toronto FCSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- New York Red Bulls – Atlanta United FCSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- Chicago Fire – Columbus CrewSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- CF Montreal – Vancouver WhitecapsSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- DC United – New York City FCSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- FC Cincinnati – Nashville SCSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
- Inter Miami – CharlotteSat, Nov 7AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining MLS fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win MLS in 2026?
Nashville SC wins MLS in 99.9% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.