Who Will Win MLS?
2,000 season simulations · 61 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the MLS 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Nashville SC wins MLS in 71.8% of 2,000 season simulations.
Inter Miami — 26.3% title chance.
Atlanta United FC goes down in 89% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 40 | 71.8% | 99.9% | <0.1% | 48 |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 38 | 26.3% | 97.7% | <0.1% | 46 |
| 3 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 34 | 1.2% | 75.9% | <0.1% | 42 |
| 4 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 34 | 0.7% | 64.4% | <0.1% | 41 |
| 5 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 33 | 0.1% | 38.2% | <0.1% | 40 |
| 6 |  New England Revolution | 17 | 30 | <0.1% | 16.4% | <0.1% | 38 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 17 | 29 | <0.1% | 4.8% | <0.1% | 36 |
| 8 |  Chicago Fire | 17 | 29 | <0.1% | 2.4% | <0.1% | 35 |
| 9 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 27 | <0.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 33 |
| 10 |  New York City FC | 18 | 26 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 32 |
| 11 |  FC Dallas | 18 | 27 | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 32 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 26 | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 32 |
| 13 |  Charlotte | 18 | 25 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 32 |
| 14 |  FC Cincinnati | 18 | 26 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 31 |
| 15 |  New York Red Bulls | 18 | 25 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 31 |
| 16 |  Minnesota United FC | 18 | 24 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 30 |
| 17 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 24 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 29 |
| 18 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 24 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 29 |
| 19 |  DC United | 18 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 28 |
| 20 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 22 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 28 |
| 21 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 22 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 26 |
| 22 |  San Diego | 18 | 21 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 26 |
| 23 |  Orlando City SC | 18 | 20 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.7% | 25 |
| 24 |  Columbus Crew | 18 | 20 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 25 |
| 25 |  Toronto FC | 18 | 17 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 19.2% | 21 |
| 26 |  Austin | 18 | 17 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 25.7% | 21 |
| 27 |  Philadelphia Union | 18 | 16 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 43.4% | 20 |
| 28 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 16 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 36.1% | 20 |
| 29 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 84% | 18 |
| 30 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 12 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 89% | 17 |
Next MLS fixtures — with AI predictions
- New England Revolution – Houston DynamoSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Orlando City SC – FC CincinnatiSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Toronto FC – New England RevolutionSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Atlanta United FC – New York Red BullsSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- CF Montreal – DC UnitedSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Charlotte – Columbus CrewSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Houston Dynamo – Los Angeles GalaxySun, Aug 16AI prediction →
- Nashville SC – Inter MiamiSun, Aug 16AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining MLS fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win MLS in 2026?
Nashville SC wins MLS in 71.8% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.