Who Will Win Primera División?
2,000 season simulations · 182 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera División 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Deportivo Tachira FC wins Primera División in 49.8% of 2,000 season simulations.
Metropolitanos FC — 41.6% title chance.
Anzoátegui FC goes down in 95% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Tachira FC | 8 | 19 | 49.8% | 99.5% | <0.1% | 56 |
| 2 |  Metropolitanos FC | 8 | 19 | 41.6% | 99.4% | <0.1% | 56 |
| 3 |  Deportivo La Guaira | 8 | 16 | 6.2% | 92.3% | <0.1% | 50 |
| 4 |  Puerto Cabello | 8 | 15 | 2.4% | 75.7% | <0.1% | 47 |
| 5 |  Portuguesa FC | 8 | 13 | 0.1% | 21.5% | <0.1% | 41 |
| 6 |  Estudiantes de Merida FC | 8 | 12 | <0.1% | 5.9% | 0.4% | 38 |
| 7 |  Carabobo FC | 8 | 11 | <0.1% | 4.4% | 0.9% | 36 |
| 8 |  Caracas FC | 8 | 10 | <0.1% | 1.2% | 3% | 34 |
| 9 |  UCV | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 19% | 29 |
| 10 |  Zamora FC | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 29.7% | 27 |
| 11 |  Monagas SC | 8 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 39.1% | 26 |
| 12 |  Trujillanos FC | 8 | 7 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 44.6% | 26 |
| 13 |  Rayo Zuliano | 8 | 6 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 68.4% | 23 |
| 14 |  Anzoátegui FC | 8 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 95% | 18 |
Next Primera División fixtures — with AI predictions
- Anzoátegui FC – Metropolitanos FCSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Estudiantes de Merida FC – Deportivo Tachira FCSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Deportivo La Guaira – UCVSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Puerto Cabello – Carabobo FCSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Rayo Zuliano – Portuguesa FCSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Carabobo FC – Deportivo La GuairaSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Portuguesa FC – Estudiantes de Merida FCSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
- Metropolitanos FC – Caracas FCSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera División fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera División in 2026?
Deportivo Tachira FC wins Primera División in 49.8% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.