Who Will Win Paulista A1?
2,000 season simulations · 240 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Paulista A1 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
RB Bragantino wins Paulista A1 in 43.2% of 2,000 season simulations.
Novorizontino — 24.5% title chance.
Ponte Preta goes down in 99.8% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  RB Bragantino | 8 | 16 | 43.2% | 90.9% | <0.1% | 58 |
| 2 |  Novorizontino | 8 | 16 | 24.5% | 82.5% | <0.1% | 56 |
| 3 |  Palmeiras | 8 | 16 | 16.4% | 72.7% | <0.1% | 54 |
| 4 |  Portuguesa | 8 | 15 | 9.5% | 61.7% | <0.1% | 53 |
| 5 |  Corinthians | 8 | 14 | 4.4% | 44.4% | 0.1% | 50 |
| 6 |  Santos | 8 | 12 | 0.8% | 12.9% | 0.4% | 46 |
| 7 |  Sao Paulo | 8 | 13 | 0.6% | 14.6% | 0.3% | 46 |
| 8 |  Capivariano | 8 | 13 | 0.5% | 11.7% | 0.2% | 45 |
| 9 |  Guarani Campinas | 8 | 12 | 0.2% | 6.2% | 1% | 43 |
| 10 |  Primavera SP | 8 | 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 27.8% | 34 |
| 11 |  Botafogo SP | 8 | 11 | <0.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 40 |
| 12 |  Mirassol | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 17.4% | 35 |
| 13 |  Noroeste | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.2% | 24.9% | 34 |
| 14 |  São Bernardo | 8 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 32.2% | 33 |
| 15 |  Velo Clube | 8 | 5 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 93.5% | 24 |
| 16 |  Ponte Preta | 8 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 99.8% | 15 |
Methodology
Every remaining Paulista A1 fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Paulista A1 in 2026?
RB Bragantino wins Paulista A1 in 43.2% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.