Who Will Win HNL?
2,000 season simulations · 16 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the HNL 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
HNK Hajduk Split wins HNL in 72.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Dinamo Zagreb — 20.1% title chance.
HNK Gorica goes down in 97% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 12 | 26 | 72.7% | 99.5% | <0.1% | 39 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 11 | 22 | 20.1% | 93% | 0.3% | 34 |
| 3 |  NK Osijek | 12 | 20 | 3.2% | 63.7% | 1.5% | 29 |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka | 11 | 18 | 2.8% | 60.8% | 1.9% | 29 |
| 5 |  NK Varazdin | 12 | 19 | 1.2% | 53.3% | 3.1% | 27 |
| 6 |  Istra 1961 | 12 | 16 | 0.1% | 18.1% | 22% | 23 |
| 7 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 12 | 13 | <0.1% | 7.6% | 44.3% | 21 |
| 8 |  Rudes | 12 | 13 | <0.1% | 2.6% | 66.3% | 19 |
| 9 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 12 | 11 | <0.1% | 1.6% | 63.9% | 18 |
| 10 |  HNK Gorica | 12 | 7 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 97% | 12 |
Next HNL fixtures — with AI predictions
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – RudesFri, Nov 6AI prediction
- HNK Gorica – NK Slaven BelupoSat, Nov 7AI prediction
- Istra 1961 – HNK RijekaSat, Nov 7AI prediction
- NK Osijek – HNK Hajduk SplitSun, Nov 8AI prediction
- NK Varazdin – Dinamo ZagrebSun, Nov 8AI prediction
- HNK Rijeka – HNK GoricaSat, Nov 21AI prediction
- HNK Hajduk Split – NK Lokomotiva ZagrebSat, Nov 21AI prediction
- Dinamo Zagreb – Istra 1961Sat, Nov 21AI prediction
Methodology
Every remaining HNL fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win HNL in 2026/27?
HNK Hajduk Split wins HNL in 72.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.