Who Will Win HNL?
2,000 season simulations · 20 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the HNL 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
NK Osijek wins HNL in 24.1% of 2,000 season simulations.
Dinamo Zagreb — 23.2% title chance.
Rudes goes down in 67.5% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NK Osijek | 1 | 3 | 24.1% | 77.7% | 3.4% | 10 |
| 2 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 3 | 23.2% | 74.4% | 2.8% | 9 |
| 3 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1 | 3 | 20.1% | 76.2% | 3.5% | 10 |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka | 1 | 3 | 17.1% | 67.6% | 3.8% | 9 |
| 5 |  NK Varazdin | 1 | 3 | 14.2% | 63.4% | 3.1% | 9 |
| 6 |  Rudes | 1 | 0 | 0.5% | 6.1% | 67.5% | 4 |
| 7 |  Istra 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0.4% | 9.3% | 47.4% | 5 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 0 | 0.3% | 8.5% | 49.9% | 5 |
| 9 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 1 | 0 | 0.2% | 8.8% | 57.6% | 5 |
| 10 |  HNK Gorica | 1 | 0 | 0.2% | 8.3% | 61.3% | 5 |
Next HNL fixtures — with AI predictions
- HNK Rijeka – Dinamo ZagrebSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Rudes – NK OsijekSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb – HNK GoricaSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- NK Slaven Belupo – NK VarazdinSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- HNK Hajduk Split – Istra 1961Sun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- NK Osijek – NK Lokomotiva ZagrebSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Dinamo Zagreb – RudesSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
- Istra 1961 – NK Slaven BelupoSat, Aug 15AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining HNL fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win HNL in 2026/27?
NK Osijek wins HNL in 24.1% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.