Who Will Win First League?
2,000 season simulations · 182 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the First League 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Levski Sofia wins First League in 81.9% of 2,000 season simulations.
CSKA Sofia — 15% title chance.
Cherno More Varna goes down in 86.9% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 10 | 28 | 81.9% | 100% | <0.1% | 65 |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia | 12 | 30 | 15% | 100% | <0.1% | 60 |
| 3 |  Ludogorets | 11 | 26 | 3.2% | 100% | <0.1% | 56 |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 | 12 | 25 | 0.1% | 98.8% | <0.1% | 51 |
| 5 |  Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 19 | <0.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 40 |
| 6 |  Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 17 | <0.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 39 |
| 7 |  Spartak Varna | 12 | 13 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2% | 29 |
| 8 |  Slavia Sofia | 12 | 12 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.5% | 29 |
| 9 |  Dunav Ruse | 12 | 11 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 14.1% | 26 |
| 10 |  Botev Vratsa | 12 | 10 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 36.1% | 24 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 46.7% | 23 |
| 12 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 50.6% | 23 |
| 13 |  Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 60.3% | 22 |
| 14 |  Cherno More Varna | 11 | 6 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 86.9% | 19 |
Next First League fixtures — with AI predictions
- Cherno More Varna – Septemvri SofiaTue, Oct 27AI prediction →
- Arda Kardzhali – Levski SofiaTue, Oct 27AI prediction →
- CSKA 1948 – Spartak VarnaFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- Lokomotiv Sofia – Botev PlovdivFri, Oct 30AI prediction →
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv – LudogoretsSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Dunav Ruse – Levski SofiaSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- CSKA Sofia – Slavia SofiaSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Cherno More Varna – Botev VratsaMon, Nov 2AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining First League fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win First League in 2026/27?
Levski Sofia wins First League in 81.9% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.