Who Will Win Primera Nacional?
2,000 season simulations · 1260 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera Nacional 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Ferro Carril Oeste wins Primera Nacional in 34.1% of 2,000 season simulations.
Tristan Suarez — 31.5% title chance.
Club Atlético Güemes goes down in 88% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 28 | 54 | 34.1% | 89.5% | <0.1% | 127 |
| 2 |  Tristan Suarez | 27 | 51 | 31.5% | 85.1% | <0.1% | 126 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Moron | 28 | 52 | 24% | 83.9% | <0.1% | 125 |
| 4 |  Temperley | 28 | 49 | 4.1% | 39.9% | <0.1% | 118 |
| 5 |  Gimnasia Jujuy | 28 | 49 | 3.9% | 37.7% | <0.1% | 118 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Madryn | 28 | 46 | 1% | 18.5% | <0.1% | 114 |
| 7 |  Godoy Cruz | 28 | 46 | 0.7% | 13.9% | <0.1% | 112 |
| 8 |  Atlanta | 28 | 45 | 0.4% | 7% | <0.1% | 110 |
| 9 |  Colon Santa Fe | 28 | 45 | 0.3% | 10.1% | <0.1% | 111 |
| 10 |  Almirante Brown | 28 | 45 | 0.2% | 7.5% | <0.1% | 110 |
| 11 |  Gimnasia Y Tiro | 28 | 44 | <0.1% | 4.1% | <0.1% | 108 |
| 12 |  San Martin S.J. | 27 | 41 | <0.1% | 2% | <0.1% | 105 |
| 13 |  Midland | 28 | 41 | <0.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 103 |
| 14 |  Deportivo Maipu | 28 | 39 | <0.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 100 |
| 15 |  Atletico DE Rafaela | 28 | 39 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 98 |
| 16 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 28 | 38 | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 96 |
| 17 |  Colegiales | 28 | 37 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 94 |
| 18 |  Los Andes | 28 | 36 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 93 |
| 19 |  CA Estudiantes | 28 | 36 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 93 |
| 20 |  San Martin Tucuman | 28 | 36 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 93 |
| 21 |  Racing Cordoba | 28 | 35 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 90 |
| 22 |  Almagro | 28 | 34 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 88 |
| 23 |  Agropecuario | 28 | 33 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.3% | 86 |
| 24 |  Quilmes | 28 | 32 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.7% | 86 |
| 25 |  Chaco For Ever | 28 | 32 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.4% | 85 |
| 26 |  Nueva Chicago | 28 | 32 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2.2% | 85 |
| 27 |  All Boys | 28 | 31 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5.3% | 83 |
| 28 |  Atletico Mitre | 28 | 31 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 5.5% | 82 |
| 29 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 28 | 30 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 7.9% | 81 |
| 30 |  Central Norte | 28 | 30 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 9.2% | 81 |
| 31 |  Patronato | 28 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 14% | 79 |
| 32 |  San Miguel | 28 | 29 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 17.1% | 78 |
| 33 |  San Telmo | 28 | 28 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 24.6% | 77 |
| 34 |  Chacarita Juniors | 28 | 27 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 38.4% | 74 |
| 35 |  Acassuso | 28 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 81.3% | 67 |
| 36 |  Club Atlético Güemes | 28 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 88% | 65 |
Next Primera Nacional fixtures — with AI predictions
- Gimnasia Y Tiro – Tristan SuarezSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Atlanta – Club Atlético GüemesSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Colegiales – Nueva ChicagoSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- All Boys – San TelmoSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Almagro – Deportivo MaipuSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Ciudad de Bolívar – Central NorteSat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Quilmes – San Martin S.J.Sat, Sep 12AI prediction →
- Los Andes – San MiguelSun, Sep 13AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera Nacional fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera Nacional in 2026?
Ferro Carril Oeste wins Primera Nacional in 34.1% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.