Who Will Win Primera Nacional?
2,000 season simulations · 1260 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primera Nacional 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Ferro Carril Oeste wins Primera Nacional in 36.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Tristan Suarez — 27.6% title chance.
Club Atlético Güemes goes down in 99.2% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 35 | 65 | 36.7% | 84.6% | <0.1% | 124 |
| 2 |  Tristan Suarez | 35 | 63 | 27.6% | 79.4% | <0.1% | 122 |
| 3 |  Godoy Cruz | 34 | 60 | 15.2% | 66.2% | <0.1% | 120 |
| 4 |  Atlanta | 35 | 61 | 7.6% | 47.3% | <0.1% | 118 |
| 5 |  Temperley | 35 | 60 | 5.6% | 41.9% | <0.1% | 117 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Moron | 35 | 58 | 2.3% | 23% | <0.1% | 114 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Madryn | 35 | 57 | 2% | 19.4% | <0.1% | 113 |
| 8 |  Colon Santa Fe | 35 | 57 | 1.7% | 17.1% | <0.1% | 113 |
| 9 |  Gimnasia Jujuy | 35 | 58 | 1.4% | 17.6% | <0.1% | 113 |
| 10 |  Gimnasia Y Tiro | 34 | 52 | 0.1% | 1.7% | <0.1% | 106 |
| 11 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 35 | 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 101 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Maipu | 34 | 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 100 |
| 13 |  Midland | 34 | 51 | <0.1% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 105 |
| 14 |  Almirante Brown | 35 | 51 | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 102 |
| 15 |  Colegiales | 35 | 51 | <0.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 102 |
| 16 |  CA Estudiantes | 35 | 49 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 98 |
| 17 |  San Martin S.J. | 34 | 47 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 98 |
| 18 |  San Martin Tucuman | 35 | 46 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 94 |
| 19 |  Atletico DE Rafaela | 35 | 46 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 93 |
| 20 |  Chaco For Ever | 35 | 43 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 89 |
| 21 |  Los Andes | 35 | 42 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 88 |
| 22 |  Agropecuario | 35 | 43 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 88 |
| 23 |  Quilmes | 35 | 42 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 88 |
| 24 |  Almagro | 35 | 42 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.4% | 86 |
| 25 |  Atletico Mitre | 34 | 39 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.7% | 84 |
| 26 |  Racing Cordoba | 35 | 40 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 4.2% | 83 |
| 27 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 34 | 38 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 6% | 82 |
| 28 |  Chacarita Juniors | 35 | 39 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 6.2% | 82 |
| 29 |  Central Norte | 34 | 37 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 12% | 81 |
| 30 |  All Boys | 35 | 38 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10.3% | 80 |
| 31 |  San Telmo | 35 | 38 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 11.3% | 80 |
| 32 |  Patronato | 35 | 37 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 15.1% | 79 |
| 33 |  Nueva Chicago | 34 | 36 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 16.4% | 79 |
| 34 |  Acassuso | 34 | 33 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 50.3% | 74 |
| 35 |  San Miguel | 34 | 32 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 62.7% | 72 |
| 36 |  Club Atlético Güemes | 34 | 26 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 99.2% | 61 |
Next Primera Nacional fixtures — with AI predictions
- Nueva Chicago – San Martin S.J.Mon, Oct 26AI prediction →
- Defensores De Belgrano – San MiguelMon, Oct 26AI prediction →
- Godoy Cruz – Almirante BrownSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Chacarita Juniors – Nueva ChicagoSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Colon Santa Fe – Defensores De BelgranoSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- San Martin S.J. – Gimnasia JujuySat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- Agropecuario – AlmagroSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
- All Boys – CA EstudiantesSat, Oct 31AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primera Nacional fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primera Nacional in 2026?
Ferro Carril Oeste wins Primera Nacional in 36.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.