Who Will Win Liga Profesional?
2,000 season simulations · 870 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Liga Profesional 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Rosario Central wins Liga Profesional in 40.9% of 2,000 season simulations.
Instituto Cordoba — 30.5% title chance.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto goes down in 84.1% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rosario Central | 16 | 34 | 40.9% | 91.9% | <0.1% | 114 |
| 2 |  Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 34 | 30.5% | 89.5% | <0.1% | 113 |
| 3 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 33 | 19% | 80.1% | <0.1% | 110 |
| 4 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 31 | 5% | 48.3% | <0.1% | 104 |
| 5 |  Gimnasia L.P. | 16 | 31 | 3.7% | 44.6% | <0.1% | 104 |
| 6 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 28 | 0.5% | 15.6% | <0.1% | 97 |
| 7 |  Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 28 | 0.4% | 15.4% | <0.1% | 97 |
| 8 |  River Plate | 16 | 26 | 0.2% | 4.9% | <0.1% | 92 |
| 9 |  Lanus | 16 | 26 | 0.1% | 5.1% | <0.1% | 92 |
| 10 |  Barracas Central | 16 | 26 | 0.1% | 3.6% | <0.1% | 91 |
| 11 |  Newells Old Boys | 16 | 23 | <0.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 84 |
| 12 |  Belgrano Cordoba | 16 | 23 | <0.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 83 |
| 13 |  Independiente | 16 | 23 | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 82 |
| 14 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 23 | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 82 |
| 15 |  Gimnasia M. | 16 | 22 | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 81 |
| 16 |  Huracan | 16 | 22 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 80 |
| 17 |  Union Santa Fe | 16 | 21 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 78 |
| 18 |  Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 21 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 78 |
| 19 |  Platense | 16 | 20 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 75 |
| 20 |  Tigre | 16 | 19 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 73 |
| 21 |  San Lorenzo | 16 | 19 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 71 |
| 22 |  Atletico Tucuman | 16 | 18 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 70 |
| 23 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 16 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 3.1% | 66 |
| 24 |  Banfield | 16 | 15 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10% | 61 |
| 25 |  Racing Club | 16 | 15 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 10.6% | 61 |
| 26 |  Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 13 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 25.8% | 57 |
| 27 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 12 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 39.9% | 54 |
| 28 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 11 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 56.4% | 52 |
| 29 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 68.4% | 50 |
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 9 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 84.1% | 46 |
Methodology
Every remaining Liga Profesional fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Liga Profesional in 2026?
Rosario Central wins Liga Profesional in 40.9% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.