Who Will Win Virsliga?
2,000 season simulations · 16 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Virsliga 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Rīgas FS wins Virsliga in 66.4% of 2,000 season simulations.
Riga — 33.6% title chance.
Ogre United goes down in 100% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rīgas FS | 24 | 62 | 66.4% | 100% | <0.1% | 69 |
| 2 |  Riga | 24 | 61 | 33.6% | 100% | <0.1% | 67 |
| 3 |  Auda | 23 | 43 | <0.1% | 100% | <0.1% | 51 |
| 4 |  BFC Daugavpils | 25 | 33 | <0.1% | 76.2% | <0.1% | 38 |
| 5 |  FK Liepaja | 24 | 31 | <0.1% | 23.1% | <0.1% | 36 |
| 6 |  Super Nova | 23 | 27 | <0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 31 |
| 7 |  FS Jelgava | 25 | 25 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 8.2% | 29 |
| 8 |  Grobiņa | 25 | 21 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 97.9% | 23 |
| 9 |  Tukums | 25 | 20 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 93.8% | 23 |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 24 | 14 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 16 |
Next Virsliga fixtures — with AI predictions
- BFC Daugavpils – TukumsSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Super Nova – FK LiepajaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- FS Jelgava – AudaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Riga – Ogre UnitedSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Rīgas FS – GrobiņaMon, Aug 10AI prediction →
- FK Liepaja – GrobiņaFri, Aug 21AI prediction →
- Auda – TukumsFri, Aug 21AI prediction →
- Super Nova – BFC DaugavpilsSat, Aug 22AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Virsliga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Virsliga in 2026?
Rīgas FS wins Virsliga in 66.4% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.