Who Will Win Primeira Liga?
2,000 season simulations · 306 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primeira Liga 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
FC Porto wins Primeira Liga in 67.4% of 2,000 season simulations.
Benfica — 30.8% title chance.
Casa Pia goes down in 96.5% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 6 | 18 | 67.4% | 100% | <0.1% | 84 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 16 | 30.8% | 99.9% | <0.1% | 80 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 14 | 1.6% | 87.4% | <0.1% | 70 |
| 4 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 15 | 0.3% | 74.7% | <0.1% | 67 |
| 5 |  SC Braga | 5 | 10 | 0.1% | 29.7% | <0.1% | 61 |
| 6 |  Estrela | 6 | 10 | <0.1% | 5.3% | <0.1% | 54 |
| 7 |  Arouca | 7 | 11 | <0.1% | 2.3% | <0.1% | 53 |
| 8 |  GIL Vicente | 6 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 47 |
| 9 |  Academico Viseu | 6 | 8 | <0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 46 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 42 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 7 | 8 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 41 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 7 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 41 |
| 13 |  Moreirense | 6 | 7 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 2% | 40 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 6 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 20.5% | 32 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 47% | 28 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 4 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 55.7% | 27 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 6 | 2 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 75.7% | 24 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 1 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 96.5% | 18 |
Next Primeira Liga fixtures — with AI predictions
- Vitória SC – MoreirenseSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Estrela – Academico ViseuSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Santa Clara – SC BragaSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Estoril – Casa PiaSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- FC Porto – BenficaSun, Sep 20AI prediction →
- Moreirense – GIL VicenteFri, Oct 9AI prediction →
- SC Braga – Sporting CPFri, Oct 9AI prediction →
- Casa Pia – Santa ClaraSat, Oct 10AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primeira Liga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primeira Liga in 2026/27?
FC Porto wins Primeira Liga in 67.4% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.