Who Will Win Primeira Liga?
2,000 season simulations · 36 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Primeira Liga 2026/27 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Estrela wins Primeira Liga in 9.6% of 2,000 season simulations.
Guimaraes — 9.2% title chance.
Famalicao goes down in 22.2% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estrela | 0 | 0 | 9.6% | 30.1% | 12.9% | 6 |
| 2 |  Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 9.2% | 28.6% | 13.6% | 6 |
| 3 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 7.3% | 26.7% | 14.1% | 6 |
| 4 |  Estoril | 0 | 0 | 6.7% | 26.1% | 13.8% | 5 |
| 5 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 6.4% | 23.1% | 14.7% | 6 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 0 | 0 | 6.4% | 24.9% | 14.1% | 5 |
| 7 |  FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 23.4% | 14.6% | 6 |
| 8 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 5.5% | 25.7% | 15.9% | 5 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 19.4% | 17.4% | 6 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 5.3% | 21.6% | 17% | 5 |
| 11 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 5.1% | 21.6% | 16.3% | 6 |
| 12 |  Arouca | 0 | 0 | 4.9% | 20% | 18.7% | 6 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 0 | 0 | 4.7% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 6 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 19.6% | 15.7% | 6 |
| 15 |  Academico Viseu | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 17.8% | 19.6% | 5 |
| 16 |  Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 17.3% | 22.2% | 6 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 16.6% | 21.8% | 5 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 17.3% | 19.5% | 5 |
Next Primeira Liga fixtures — with AI predictions
- Estoril – FamalicaoFri, Aug 7AI prediction →
- Maritimo – Casa PiaSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Guimaraes – AroucaSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Estrela – Sporting CPSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- FC Porto – AlvercaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Benfica – Academico ViseuSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Moreirense – SC BragaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- GIL Vicente – Rio AveSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Primeira Liga fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Primeira Liga in 2026/27?
Estrela wins Primeira Liga in 9.6% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.