Who Will Win Série A?
2,000 season simulations · 40 remaining fixtures
We simulate the rest of the Série A 2026 season thousands of times using our AI's match probabilities. Here's every team's chance of the title, a top-4 finish and a bottom-3 finish — updated after every round.
The headline calls
Palmeiras wins Série A in 99.7% of 2,000 season simulations.
Flamengo — 0.3% title chance.
Chapecoense-sc goes down in 100% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pl | Pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Proj. Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 21 | 47 | 99.7% | 100% | <0.1% | 55 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 20 | 39 | 0.3% | 99.7% | <0.1% | 46 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 21 | 37 | <0.1% | 92.2% | <0.1% | 43 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 21 | 34 | <0.1% | 48.3% | <0.1% | 40 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 21 | 32 | <0.1% | 35.8% | <0.1% | 39 |
| 6 |  RB Bragantino | 20 | 31 | <0.1% | 15% | <0.1% | 37 |
| 7 |  Cruzeiro | 21 | 30 | <0.1% | 4.8% | <0.1% | 36 |
| 8 |  Corinthians | 21 | 29 | <0.1% | 1.7% | <0.1% | 35 |
| 9 |  Botafogo | 20 | 29 | <0.1% | 1.5% | <0.1% | 34 |
| 10 |  Atletico-MG | 20 | 28 | <0.1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 34 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 21 | 27 | <0.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 33 |
| 12 |  Sao Paulo | 20 | 26 | <0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 32 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 21 | 26 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 30 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 20 | 23 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 19.4% | 27 |
| 15 |  Santos | 20 | 22 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 22.4% | 27 |
| 16 |  Gremio | 20 | 22 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 18% | 27 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 21 | 22 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 30.9% | 26 |
| 18 |  Remo | 21 | 21 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 53.3% | 26 |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 20 | 21 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 55.2% | 25 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 20 | 10 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 100% | 13 |
Next Série A fixtures — with AI predictions
- Gremio – Sao PauloSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Remo – Atletico-MGSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Coritiba – Chapecoense-scSat, Aug 8AI prediction →
- Botafogo – FluminenseSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Cruzeiro – MirassolSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Bahia – Vasco DA GamaSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Palmeiras – InternacionalSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
- Santos – Atletico ParanaenseSun, Aug 9AI prediction →
Methodology
Every remaining Série A fixture is simulated 2,000 times with Betora's AI strength model, built from the live table, form and Elo ratings. The probabilities re-run automatically after every round.
Journalists and bloggers: you are welcome to cite or republish these numbers with a link to this page as the source.
Title race FAQ
Who will win Série A in 2026?
Palmeiras wins Série A in 99.7% of our AI's season simulations — the current favourite. The probability table above shows every team's chances, updated after every round.
How are the title probabilities calculated?
We simulate every remaining fixture thousands of times using strength ratings built from the live table and form, then count how often each team finishes first, top 4 or bottom 3.
How often are the probabilities updated?
After every round — results change the table, the table changes the ratings, and the simulation re-runs automatically.